Dem
51
GOP
49
Older voters are moving towards Joe Biden and younger ones are moving towards Donald Trump. Historically, that is all wrong. Seniors have traditionally favored Republicans and juniors have always been Democrats. That never made any sense since it's the Democrats who want to protect Social Security and it's the Republicans who want to privatize it. Now this certainty seems to be coming unglued.
In a recent Siena College poll registered voters 65+, when pushed, favored Biden 51% to 42%. Among voters 18-29, Biden led by 1 point, 46% to 45%. What's wrong with this picture? It could be that in their dotage, the 1960s hippies have come to respect the institutions they previously hated and don't want to burn the whole thing down. Swapping age groups is not neutral. Seniors vote and juniors, meh. When asked if they were likely to vote, 88% of the 65+ voters said they were very likely or certain to vote. Among voters 18-29, the figure was 65%. For Biden, trading groups is a sweet deal.
Quinnipiac University also ran a poll recently. The results are similar. Among seniors, Biden leads 55% to 43%; among 18 to 34-year-olds, Trump leads 48% to 47%.
These results agree with the fact that Biden is doing better in the "northern route" states than in the "southern route" states. Pennsylvania is the 10th oldest state or territory (median age is 40.9), Michigan is 14th at 40.1, and Wisconsin is 16th at 40.0. In contrast, Nevada and Arizona are tied for 34th (38.5), and Georgia is 42nd at 37.3. In other words, the "Rust Belt" states have proportionally more older voters and they like Biden (and like voting). (V)