Jun.12

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Voters in Another 4.06 States Head to the Polls

The presidential contest is over, both figuratively and literally. However, there are still some states where voters need to make decisions on other races. Yesterday, Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina held primaries, while Ohio held a special election for OH-06 (that's one of fifteen CDs in the state, hence the .06 in the headline). Here are the notable results:

• North Dakota, Governor: They don't have term limits in North Dakota, but Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) is seeking a promotion (?) to vice president. So, it's time for North Dakotans to pick a new chief executive. The state hasn't elected a Democrat to that post since Ronnie Reagan was in office, so the GOP primary was the de facto gubernatorial election. And your winner is Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND), who nearly tripled up Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller (R-ND), 73.2% to 26.8%. Both candidates are conservative, but Armstrong is only kinda Trumpy. He was one of seven Republicans who did not join in efforts to challenge the 2020 election results in the House, he did not support motions of censure against Reps. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), and he is a supporter of same-sex marriage.
  
  
• Nevada, Senate: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has no problem with party unity; she took 91.7% of the vote in her primary. She learned that she will face off against Sam Brown (R). Brown is a veteran of the War in Afghanistan; his face was badly burned when an improvised explosive device exploded in close proximity to him. His first run for office was in Texas, which may give him some carpet-baggage. He also ran for the U.S. Senate in Nevada once before, but lost in the primary to Adam Laxalt (R). Brown is the most moderate of the three Republicans who were on the ballot yesterday, and won easily, with 59.6% of the vote. He was endorsed by Donald Trump, but that endorsement came just 2 days ago, by which time Brown's victory was assured. In other words, the endorsement is not evidence that Brown is the most Trumpy (he's not); it's evidence that Trump is trying to keep his batting average high.
  
  
• ME-02: If you count this R+6 district, then there were four competitive House districts on the ballot yesterday. Normally, an R+6 district is not considered competitive, but this one is because it's held by a Democrat, Jared Golden. He is one of the blue doggiest Democrats, for obvious reasons. And now, he will learn if he's been blue doggy enough, as he faces off against state Rep. Austin Theriault (R), who easily won his party's nomination. His main qualification for office is that he used to be a NASCAR driver. And his platform is... he used to be a NASCAR driver. To the extent that he has policy positions, the main one is that he wants to fix Maine's roads. Maybe so they can host a NASCAR race? The Walpole 400?
  
  
• NV-01: Rep. Dana Titus (D), who was unopposed yesterday, represents this D+3 district. Her opponent will be Mark Robertson, who fended off two other contenders with 48.4% of the vote. He's a political newbie, and is pretty conservative, so he's out of step with the district. He's only going to be elected if the presidential and/or Senate contests produce some coattails.
  
  
• NV-03: Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) easily won her primary over trans woman RockAthena Brittain, taking 92.1% of the vote. Now, Lee will try to hold on to her D+1 district against Drew Johnson (R), who outpaced six other candidates with 32.0% of the vote. Johnson is a throwback Republican who sounds a lot more like Ronald Reagan than Donald Trump. Our guess is that will be a pretty good match for a purple district, particularly one that is fairly suburban (it includes the area south of Las Vegas, including Henderson).
  
  
• NV-04: Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) easily brushed off a challenge from the left in his D+3 district, taking 89.9% of the vote. His opponent will be former North Las Vegas mayor John Lee (R), who won a close one, barely edging out David Flippo (R), 48.1% to 45.4%. If there is one thing Lee would like you to know about him, it's that he really, really loves Donald Trump. Perhaps this one will be close, but since the district acquired its current boundaries in 2012, it's gone for the Democrat in every statewide and House election save one (Cresent Hardy was elected to the House for a single term in 2014). That fact, plus incumbency, means you should probably bet on Horsford to win and Lee to show.
  
  
• OH-06: That's all of the competitive districts; at R+16, this one most certainly is not competitive. Or, at least, it shouldn't be. However, in the special election occasioned by the resignation of Rep. Bill Johnson (R), state Sen. Michael Rulli (R) defeated Michael Kripchak (D) by just 9 points, 54.7% to 45.3%. That's not exactly close, but it's about 10 points closer than the partisan lean of the district would predict. The wonky nature of special elections? The fact that Kripchak ran on reproductive freedom? Could be either... or both.
  
  
• SC-01: At R+7, this one isn't really competitive, either. However, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) faced a serious primary challenge from the Kevin McCarthy-backed Catherine Templeton (R). At least, it was supposed to be a serious challenge, but Mace took 56.8% of the vote, as compared to 29.8% for Templeton in the three-way race. That means that Mace will avoid a runoff. It also means that McCarthy's first attempt to have revenge against the Republicans who voted to fire him came up way short. Better luck next time, we suppose.
  
  
• SC-04: This one is R+12. Rep. William Timmons (R) faced a challenge from the far-right courtesy of state Rep. Adam Morgan (R), who leads his chamber's version of the Freedom Caucus. Timmons had the backing of a bunch of his colleagues, as well as Donald Trump, and he won in a nail-biter, 51.6% to 48.4%. Yet again, Trump's endorsement was about his batting average (and, indeed, he was 100% on endorsements yesterday). He's definitely thinking much more tactically in 2024 than he did in 2020 or 2016.
  
  
• North Dakota Measure 1: This measure would impose age limits on members of North Dakota's congressional delegation, disqualifying them from running if they would turn 81 prior to the end of the year before the end of their term (so, by the end of year 1 for representatives, and by the end of year 5 for senators). It passed, 60.9% to 39.1%.
  
  It could not be any more transparent that this is about messaging and nothing else. First, note that Joe Biden just so happens to be 81 (surprise!), while Donald Trump is 77. Hard to imagine how they came up with 81 as the cutoff point (as opposed to 75, 80 or 85). Second, the oldest current member of North Dakota's congressional delegation is 67 (Sen. John Hoeven), and so the law likely would not kick in until the 2040s. Third, if it takes constitutional text to establish a minimum age, then it surely takes constitutional text to establish a maximum age, so there's no way this survives a court challenge. The only issue is finding someone with standing to sue.

Next week, Georgia has its primary election runoffs, Oklahoma will pick the Republicans who will represent it in the House in the next Congress, and Virginia has primaries for both the House and the U.S. Senate. Most news that is made on Tuesday will surely come out of the Old Dominion. (Z)