Dem
51
GOP
49
It did not take long for a jury of Hunter Biden's peers to find him guilty on all three counts that he faced in connection with buying a gun while in the thrall of illegal drugs.
On the facts, Biden was pretty clearly guilty. First of all, the gun purchase took place during a phase of his life where illegal drugs were a constant part of his existence. Convincing a jury that he just so happened to buy the gun during a sojourn from the crack was a tall hill to climb. Further—and we never fully understood how the defense was accounting for this—the current thinking on addiction is "once an addict, always an addict." So, there's an argument to be made that it did not matter if he was on the stuff or not at the time he bought the gun.
Anyhow, the defense really hoped for some jury nullification, and some members of the jury wanted to grant that, but in the end, they just couldn't do it. "I really don't think that Hunter belongs in jail," said one of them (identified only as Juror 10). "It was very sad... not that he was being convicted of these crimes, but that his life has turned out the way it did."
Once the verdict was in, the Bidens responded like grown-ups. Here is the statement that Hunter released to the media:
I am more grateful today for the love and support I experienced this last week from Melissa, my family, my friends, and my community than I am disappointed by the outcome. Recovery is possible by the grace of God, and I am blessed to experience that gift one day at a time.
Joe Biden traveled to Delaware to be with his son yesterday afternoon, and released a statement of his own:
As I said last week, I am the President, but I am also a Dad. Jill and I love our son, and we are so proud of the man he is today. So many families who have had loved ones battle addiction understand the feeling of pride seeing someone you love come out the other side and be so strong and resilient in recovery. As I also said last week, I will accept the outcome of this case and will continue to respect the judicial process as Hunter considers an appeal. Jill and I will always be there for Hunter and the rest of our family with our love and support. Nothing will ever change that.
These responses stand in marked contrast to... certain other convicted felons' responses, let's say.
So, what is next for Hunter Biden? He's got another trial, of course. As regards this one, sentencing has not been scheduled yet; Judge Maryellen Noreika said she would calendar that sometime in the next 120 days. The three counts carry a maximum sentence of 25 years. However, first-time offenders don't get the maximum. There are also other mitigating factors here:
We read several "predictions" pieces from current and former federal prosecutors, and there's a general consensus that Biden will get some prison time. The guesses ranged from 6 to 22 months. Of course, Biden is going to appeal, so any time in the clink is still pretty far in the future, even if it does come to pass.
And now to the political dimension of this conviction. For the Democrats, this one is easy as pie. From Joe Biden on down, they are all saying, "The justice system did its work, and we will respect the result." Just as simple as that. And when Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) is (likely) convicted, they can say it again.
For the Republicans, it's much trickier, for the following reasons:
This is a pretty good list, but it's probably not exhaustive.
The challenge here is indicated by the response from the right yesterday. Although the Republican Party tends to be pretty disciplined when it comes to messaging and soundbites, and although they've known for weeks this day was coming, they were all over the place yesterday. Let's start with some right-wing websites, and their front pages after the verdict yesterday:
It's a bit tough to see the Hunter Biden-related stuff in some cases, as there was a general tendency toward downplaying the story. In fact, OAN didn't have anything at all. Beyond that, one major theme was "Republicans good, Democrats bad." Fox, as you might be able to see, went with "justice is served" and a bunch of quotes from Fox viewers about how wicked Hunter is. WND's story was how the verdict shows what a great guy Donald Trump is (keep reading for explanation). Townhall's story was about how whackadoodle the media coverage of the trial was among non-right-wing sources.
Another major theme was, in effect, conspiratorial thinking. Note that Newsmax talked to Alan Dershowitz, who said that Hunter Biden's conviction was 100% legit while Donald Trump's was 100% phony. Boy, how far that guy has fallen. Meanwhile, Breitbart attributed the conviction to a broader conspiracy to somehow distract attention from the Biden family's corruption (more on this coming up, too).
Virtually every Trumpy politician had a response, and they were all over the place. Let's run down a few to illustrate the various lines of attack that are presumably being workshopped right now:
In short, Trump's enablers in both the media and in the political establishment are (mostly) bending over backwards, left, right and sideways to explain how Trump's conviction could not possibly be legitimate, even if the justice system just convicted the son of a president. As we wrote before the verdict came down, we have no doubt that the True Believers will buy one, several, or all of these theories lock, stock and barrel. But they aren't the voters that matter, it's the fence-sitters. And as of yesterday, Trump is not only a convicted felon, but a felon without much of a compelling story to tell as to why voters should disregard his conviction. (Z)