Dem
51
GOP
49
John Harris, a founding editor of Politico, wrote a long piece in the magazine on the likely political fallout of Donald Trump's conviction. He starts with two truths. First, for any other politician, a criminal conviction would be the end of the line. Full stop. Second, Trump's supporters will cling more tightly to Trump than before, in part because they see him as a victim just like they see themselves.
But Harris' next observation is that Trump's base is large enough to win a Republican nomination but not large enough alone to win a general election, no matter how enthusiastic it is. Trump needs to win over moderate Republicans and independents who think that HE is the deplorable (Hillary didn't get it exactly right), but who also hate Joe Biden. The verdict won't transform the race and doesn't mean that suddenly huge numbers of voters will start caring about democracy. But it does mean that many voters who already disliked Trump but disliked Biden more will get a reminder of why they don't like Trump.
In this context, one line Biden has flogged mercilessly can come into play now: "Don't compare me to the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative." Biden may now add: "It is always chaos with Trump, chaos and putting himself first. How can he do what is best for the country and do what is best for you when he will spend his entire 4 years obsessed with his legal issues, trying to settle scores, trying to stay out of prison?"
There are two demographics Biden will now focus on. One is highly educated, highly informed, traditional Republicans, most of whom can be counted on to vote. They like people such as Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Mitt Romney (R-UT). They don't like Biden because he is too old or too anti-business or too pro-tax. The conviction could change the balance about who is the lesser of two evils. Some of these people may abandon Trump as a result of the conviction and Biden can focus on trying to help them to do that.
The other is low-information, less reliable voters. They don't read newspapers, watch TV news, or get political information from any other source. They are not interested in politics and frequently don't vote. But news as big as Trump's conviction will filter through to some of them via friends, social media, and other indirect sources. If all they know about Trump is: (1) he used to be president and (2) he is now a convicted criminal, that could motivate them to vote this time. Reaching the first group is easy: Advertise in the Wall Street Journal, CNN, and other reputable media outlets. Reaching the second group requires some creativity (Instagram? TikTok? Other?). In any event, Biden's first goal has to be getting some educated Republicans to abandon Trump, even if they decide not to vote at all (which helps Democrats downballot). (V)