Jun.03

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Opinions from Various Experts

So much for looking backwards at what might have been. Now let's look forward to see what could yet be. Politico interviewed 22 people in politics as well as some historians to get a sample of what keen observers think will happen next. Here is a brief summary of some of the more interesting views.

• Timothy Naftali (professor of history at Columbia): The guilty verdict cuts two ways. First, it shows that the rule of law prevailed, even against a rich and powerful defendant. Second, that defendant is now going to attack the rule of law and the courts in a more ferocious way than they have ever been attacked before. Most Republicans will agree (in public) that the courts are corrupt and the only way to fix them is to replace all the judges with Trump appointees. It will be a very toxic campaign and divide the country even more than it is already divided.
  
  
• Curt Mills (executive director of The American Conservative): The trial was a farce because it did not relate to anything Trump did as president. There will be recriminations forever. The genie is now out of the bottle and Americans of all stripes will later regret letting it out.
  
  
• Mike Madrid (GOP strategist): What will happen to the 20% of Republicans who have voted for Nikki Haley even after she dropped out? If the verdict locks down even half of them, Trump is in trouble. Tomorrow's primaries (see below) may give us a clue.
  
  
• Andra Gillespie (poli sci professor at Emory): The election is not about convincing anyone. It is about getting your side to turn out on Nov. 5. Trump will rally his supporters with his new martyrdom. This will give them a strong reason to turn out to protect him. Biden will talk about more abstract things, like protecting democracy. Will that be enough for the voters who dislike him on account of other issues, like Gaza and student loans? It could matter hugely.
  
  
• Catherine Ross (professor emerita at George Washington Law School): During the trial, Trump smeared the judge and everyone associated with the justice system. Some MAGA true believers might now take action against judges, FBI agents, and court personnel. Even worse, this might cause the conservatives on the Supreme Court to justify ruling in favor of Trump's immunity claims.
  
  
• Jeff Greenfield (television analyst): Each time Trump did something outrageous, like insulting war hero John McCain, insulting a Gold Star family, talking about grabbing women by the you-know-what, firing the director of the FBI, etc., he gained support. Maybe this time will be different, but 9 years of experience suggests it won't.
  
  
• Mona Charen (editor at The Bulwark): If Trump had gotten a hung jury, he would have crowed to the moon that even liberal New Yorkers couldn't convict him. That pitfall has been avoided. Also, some others—No Labels folded its tent and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. didn't get the Libertarian Party nomination, but there are so many more unknowns. The risks of things going wrong are greater than the risks of them going right.
  
  
• Liam Donovan (former NRSC aide): Now the country has one more thing to be divided about: Can you trust institutions, like the courts? For some Americans, the system worked. For others, the system is crooked and the fix was in from the start. The main fallout is that Americans will hate other Americans even more than they already do.
  
  
• Allan Lichtman (professor of history at American University): Trump's grip on his base will tighten, but his base is not big enough to win the presidency. He needs moderates and independents. This could cost him some votes among them.
  
  
• Ruy Teixeira (senior fellow at AEI): It probably won't matter. Maybe the only consequence is to force Democrats to chuck the idea that there will be some game-changing event and to get to work to beat Trump by conventional means (registering voters and getting them to the polls). There is no silver bullet.
  
  
• Charlie Sykes (former right-wing talk show host): Trump will now be nominated as a convicted felon, will campaign as a convicted felon, and will go into Election Day as a convicted felon. This tends to focus the mind. In many cases, convicted felons cannot vote, cannot serve on a jury, may not own a gun, cannot serve on the board of a publicly traded company, cannot get a security clearance, and cannot get a license to be a liquor dealer, realtor, bondsman and many other things. Some voters may come to think of convicted felons as less than full citizens. That could influence their vote.
  
  
• Leah Wright Riguer (professor of history at Johns Hopkins): Democracy is very fragile and in crisis. This verdict could be tinder for more political violence. Trump will undoubtedly stoke the flames. Nevertheless, the verdict showed that even the wealthiest and most powerful people in the country can be held accountable.
  
  
• Sarah Longwell (publisher of The Bulwark): Trump's conviction is one of the few bright spots for accountability and the rule of law lately. Even though no other trials are likely before the election, we can be grateful that the system still works. Republicans aren't going to abandon Trump en masse, but a few thousand former Trump voters might stay home, vote third party, or even vote for Biden. In half a dozen swing states, that could matter.
  

In other words, some people think the rule of law held and others think the whole thing was rigged from the start. Our biggest takeaway is that the culture wars just added a new front: Are the courts rigged? (V)