Jul.31

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Arizonans Head to the Polls

It was Arizona's turn to hold their (second) primary yesterday; here are the results that are of interest:

• U.S. Senate: Trumpy Republicans got their crackpot yesterday, as Kari Lake took 54.5% of the vote, dispatching two challengers handily. She'll face off against Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), whose race was uncontested. In 2022, a total of $129 million was spent on Arizona's Senate race. This year, it could top $150 million.
  
  
• AZ-01: Relative to most states, Arizona has an unusually high number of competitive House seats, with three of them. The first of those is AZ-01, which is R+2, and is held by Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ), who barely won his last election. In view of these facts, this seat is a high-priority target for the Democrats.
  
  The blue team is going to have to wait to find out the identity of their horse, however, as there are three candidates in close proximity to each other with 70% of the vote in: Amish Shah is at 24.2%, Andrei Cherny is not far behind with 21.5% and Marlene Galan-Woods has 20.7%. The Democrats will be happy with any of the three; Shah has the most experience in elective office, Cherny is a former state party chair, and Galan-Woods is a woman in a race where abortion rights will be front and center.
  
  
• AZ-03: The seat being vacated by Gallego is not one of the competitive ones; it's far and away the bluest seat in the state at D+24. So, the Democratic primary yesterday was the de facto general election. And Gallego's replacement is... unknown, at the moment. Former Phoenix Vice Mayor Yassamin Ansari is more moderate, and was backed by $1 million in money from cryptocurrency interests. She stands at 46%, with 73% reporting. Former state Sen. Raquel Terán is more progressive, and has the full-throated backing of every individual and group you can think of who cares about progressive politics, abortion access, or Latino/a candidates. She has 42%. If Terán comes from behind to claim the nomination, she'll be in line to be the first Latina to represent Arizona in Congress.
  
  
• AZ-04: This is another competitive district, at D+2. Rep. Greg Stanton (D-AZ) was unchallenged, and he's yet another who will have to wait to see who his opponent will be. Kelly Cooper is a Marine Corps veteran and a businessman; he's currently got 32.4% of the vote with 70% reporting. Zuhdi Jasser is a physician; he's at 27.4%. There isn't a lot of space between the two on the issues; both are running on border security, first and foremost, followed by fiscal conservatism/taming inflation, which may not be compatible goals. Jasser is also a flat taxer, if that is useful to know. The Trumpiest candidate in the race is Dave Giles, but he sits at 23.6%, and is effectively eliminated from contention.
  
  
• AZ-06: This is the last of the competitive districts, at R+3. And it's the only one of the three where the general election matchup is already set. That is because Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) easily dispatched a challenge from the right, while former state senator Kirsten Engel (D) was unopposed. Joe Biden won this district in 2020, while Ciscomani and Engel faced off in 2022, with the former winning 50.7% to 49.3%. Needless to say, the Democrats think that with presidential (and senatorial) coattails, Engel has a good chance to avenge her loss this year.
  
  
• AZ-08: This was the battle of the losers. When Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-AZ) announced her retirement from this very red seat (R+10), two different Republicans saw their chance to finally win an election: failed U.S. Senate candidate (and vassal of Peter Thiel) Blake Masters and failed state attorney general candidate Abe Hamadeh. At the moment, with 83% of the vote in, Hamadeh has 29.8% of the vote as compared to 25.3% for Masters. That's a pretty tall mountain to climb; if Masters can't do it, maybe he'll finally go away. Or, alternatively, maybe he'll move a couple more steps down the ladder, and wage a Thiel-funded campaign for vice associate dogcatcher of Maricopa County.
  
  
• Maricopa County Recorder: Speaking of Maricopa County, a generally low-profile election there was very, very high-profile this cycle. You see, incumbent Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer (R) is a traitor. His crime? He says that Joe Biden won the 2020 election. The Maricopa County GOP really should have just strung him up from the highest tree they could find, Nathan Hale-style, but instead the Party ended up running two election-denier challengers. One of the two, Justin Heap, knocked off Richer, 42.4% to 35.9%. Presumably, in the general, the same voters who rallied to defeat Kari Lake and Blake Masters in 2022 will join together to give the job to Democrat Tim Stringham, whose primary was uncontested.
  
  
• Slow Play: As you can see, the state had some difficulty getting ballots counted in a timely manner yesterday. The reason is a new state law that governs the handling of mail-in ballots, and that was worded in such a way that election officials don't entirely understand what the new rules are. The state legislature is going to try to clarify its intent, and hopefully they will succeed. Having one of the swingiest states take forever to produce results, as a result of confusion surrounding absentee ballots, would be a propaganda bonanza for Donald Trump and his allies.

After a bit of a lull, the next few weeks will feature a run of primaries. More tomorrow. (Z)