Dem
51
GOP
49
Kamala Harris could theoretically wait until the Democratic National Convention to reveal her choice of running mate but, well, we saw how well that worked out for the last presidential candidate who did it that way. Plus, there's the fact that Democrats don't really trust Ohio Republicans to play by the rules established by Ohio Republicans. These things being the case, Harris is looking to make her pick by August 7, so that when the delegates vote by virtual roll-call that day, they can affirm both halves of the Democratic ticket.
There has been much movement on the VP front in the last 24 hours. Here's the rundown:
Rising
Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg: Tactically, Buttigieg makes little sense. He's gay, he's from Indiana and his personality is similar to Harris'. As a campaigner, however, he makes all the sense in the world. There may be no Democrat in the country who is better on TV, including unfriendly outlets like Fox. Buttigieg underscored that over the past few days with very successful appearances on Fox and on The Daily Show. Democratic insiders remain skeptical that Harris will tap Buttigieg, but acknowledge that "the vibes are high right now." We will also note that the type of person most likely to survive the vetting process is someone who's already survived it before. Among the people on the shortlist, that describes only Buttigieg, who had to be vetted prior to his Cabinet appointment. He was also under the giant microscope when he ran for president in 2020.
Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN): Minnesota is nominally a swing state, but not really, since if the Democrats lose there, they will also lose in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. So, the pro-Walz contingent argues that the case for Walz is that he's the rare Democrat who can connect with rural Americans, and that he's also very popular with organized labor. Also, he apparently has the "Midwest grit." We thought that was something you got removed from your vehicle at the car wash, but maybe not. Reportedly, Walz is getting a long look from the Harris campaign.
Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI): Here's a name that wasn't often mentioned before yesterday. Peters comes from a key swing state, he's also popular with organized labor, he's got many years' experience in government and he's a shrewd tactician when it comes to campaigning. Insiders say he's definitely in the mix.
Falling
Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC): Yesterday, Cooper announced that he is withdrawing from consideration, explaining that this "just wasn't the right time." Given that he will be 71 the next time there is a presidential election, we are not sure what the right time might be. In any case, when someone drops out, coupled with vague excuses, it usually means that they know they're not going to be the pick, and they are saving face. Also, the only reason to run for veep is to be positioned to run for president in 8 years. Cooper would be 75 then and given all the fuss about candidates' ages, that would be a deal killer. Also, Cooper is afraid that if he is out of state campaigning, the crazy lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson, would wreak havoc with the state. It makes much more sense to run against Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) in 2026, since you can be 90 in the Senate and it is OK if you are not completely senile.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI): She also declared herself to be out of the running yesterday. In her case, we think it's more plausible that she really didn't want the job.
Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) Shapiro has some potential skeletons in the closet. On the #MeToo front, a high-ranking aide named Mike Vereb was accused of sexual harassment. The state paid a six-figure settlement to the accuser and Vereb quietly resigned; critics say Shapiro "swept it under the rug." First Amendment advocates have concerns about his aggressive anti-protester actions on college campuses, while environmentalists think he's a little too cozy with Big Petroleum.
Mixed
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ): On one hand, Democrats on the Hill are pushing hard for him because they believe he can help win both the state and the open Senate seat, and that he can help neutralize the border as an issue. However, Fox reported (well, re-reported) yesterday that a company Kelly owns, which makes weather balloons, has received some funding from Chinese company Tencent.
Looking at the details, this does not appear to be a substantive issue. Tencent's investment is small and entails no voice in the management of the company. And the company is just a side gig for Kelly, one that he currently takes no role in, having put his interest into a blind trust. However, "Chinese money" and "weather balloon" are not a good combination, optics-wise. The whole thing has the feel of Hillary Clinton and the Russian uranium. And if the Harris campaign picks Kelly, it means they're hoping/gambling that this story won't be a big deal. Sometimes, such gambles about candidates' skeletons/semi-skeletons do not pay off (see Trump, Donald and Vance, J.D.).
So, that is where things stand right now. As both the Harris campaign and the reporters look under every stone for any dirt they can find, the picture could change rapidly.
And we're going to re-start our presidential tracking poll today, having paused it due to the uncertainty surrounding the Democratic ticket. Here are the questions for this round:
If you want to participate, the link is here. We will have the results the day after Harris announces her pick. (Z)