Dem
51
GOP
49
In 2020, in a number of states, Donald Trump took the lead on Election Day but, as absentee ballots returned on or before Election Day were counted, his lead dwindled until it was gone and Biden was ahead. Donald Trump bellowed many times that the counting should stop at midnight on Election Day, even if state law required ballots received on time to be counted.
We are likely to have a rerun of that again this year in seven states, most notably Pennsylvania, the largest swing state. This delayed count could give Trump ammo to claim that Democrats were stuffing the ballot box after the election and rile his supporters up, possibly for another attack on the Capitol, on Jan. 6, 2025.
In 43 states, this "red mirage" won't happen. In those states, election officials are permitted (or required) to: (1) check the signatures on the absentee-ballot envelopes well before Election Day, (2) open the envelopes and (3) place the unfolded ballots in neat piles, ready to be put into the hopper of the ballot-counting machine at 7 a.m. (or earlier) on Election Day. Then the absentee totals can be announced as soon as the polls close. This might possibly create a "blue mirage," but it wouldn't be grist for Trump's mill if at 8:01 p.m. on Election Day it was announced that he was starting way behind due to the absentee ballots.
So why don't Pennsylvania and the six other states allow what is called pre-canvassing? Because Republicans don't want it and they have the power to block legislation enabling it, as the Republican-controlled Pennsylvania state Senate recently did. They want Donald Trump to have some excuse for claiming the election was rigged in the event that he loses. Kathy Boockvar, who was Pennsylvania's secretary of state in 2020, said: "It's reprehensible that they didn't get it done. This is not rocket science. The reality is that not passing this bill will mean that ballots will take longer to count, which means it will be longer until we have the results of the election." Pennsylvania state Rep. Scott Conklin (D) said: "This is a perfect case of where the elected officials are purposely causing a delay, causing an atmosphere of conspiracy and doing it on the backs of good citizens who trust them."
But it gets worse. In 2020, in the interval between Election Day and the final result, police arrested two armed men who drove up from Virginia in search of fake ballots. The longer the window between Election Day and the final results, the more danger there is of vigilantes trying to stop the count. It would obviously be better for the seven holdouts to allow precanvassing, but the Republicans don't want it in either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, so there could be conspiracy theories this year if those states are close. (V)