Dem
51
GOP
49
As we have mentioned multiple times, the "northern route" (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) was easier for Joe Biden than the "southern route" (Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina) because the northern states are 80-90% white and mostly industrial with older, working-class voters—Biden's strength. The southern states are much more diverse and much less industrial. Swapping Biden for Harris changes things. Her strength is with young and minority voters, not older working-class white voters. Does she pick up more voters than she loses, and crucially, where? She is expected to run worse than Biden in the North and better than Biden in the South. Does that mean she swaps the northern states for the southern states?
Not so fast. Biden was very close in the northern states and in a deep hole in the southern states. Winning Georgia and North Carolina is a much tougher lift for any Democrat than winning Michigan and Wisconsin. Not impossible by any means, but more difficult.
Harris is no doubt polling like crazy and surely knows this. It can also have impact on her choice of veep. Picking Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) could probably take Pennsylvania off the table and put it in her pocket. He would also help in Michigan and Wisconsin, since they are demographically similar to Pennsylvania. On the other hand, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) would virtually guarantee winning Arizona and probably neighboring Nevada. Also, having him on the ticket would almost certainly mean that Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) would crush Kari Lake for the open Senate seat. Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes. Arizona plus Nevada have 17 EVs. In a close race, those two EVs could matter.
But there are intangible factors that Harris also has to consider when picking a running mate. Shapiro is an excellent speaker, but he has been a politician his whole life. Kelly was a brave Navy pilot and astronaut, but he is not a good speaker. Which is more important? Shapiro is also Jewish, which is guaranteed to put the Middle East front and center in the campaign and he is a strong backer of Israel, which will infuriate some lefties (who don't realize that Trump is infinitely more pro-Israel than Harris and that Young Jared wants to get rid of all the Gazans and then develop Gaza into Miami Beach, with expensive hotels and condos).
Harris may try to reassemble the Obama coalition, but the times are different. Here are the 2008 and 2012 electoral-college maps:
In both races Obama won the three northern route states. In 2008, he also won Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida. In 2012, he won Florida, Ohio, and Iowa but not North Carolina. Winning Florida, Ohio, and Iowa is very unlikely for Harris, but if she can reconstruct enough of the Obama coalition to put together the 2012 map, she would win, despite the blue states having lost some electoral votes in the 2020 census. The 2012 map minus Florida, Ohio, and Iowa is now good for 277 EVs, which is enough. Also, in contrast to 2012, Arizona is very much in play this year and that could balance the loss of Wisconsin. (V)