Jul.26

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GOP 49

Harris-Trump Debate(s): The Crystal Ball Is Murky

Will there be another presidential debate (or two)? Will there be a vice-presidential debate? The short answer: Who knows?

Donald Trump has said, at various times, that he thinks presidential candidates have a responsibility to debate, and that he very much wants to debate his opponent, whoever they might be. He already committed, of course, to a second debate with Joe Biden, on September 10, to be hosted by ABC News. However, now that Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic nominee, Trump is equivocating, saying that he just can't commit right now, because the Democrats might change candidates again.

This is, on its face, nonsense. First of all, when Trump initially committed to the two debates, Joe Biden was as much the Democratic nominee as Harris is right now. Sure, something might happen with Harris. But something could have happened (and did happen) with Biden. There are no guarantees in life. Further, at this point on the calendar, what's important is the date and time, so Trump can block it out on his schedule. Until he begins prep, it does not matter who will be standing at the other podium.

So, what is going on here? We can come up with three possible explanations:

• This is just a clumsy attempt at messaging, trying to bring added attention to the claim that the Democrats changed candidates, and this therefore means they are in terrible disarray and/or that they broke the law.
  
  
• Trump is searching for a way to skip future debates, knowing that a matchup against Harris presents a number of serious potential pitfalls that a matchup against Biden did not.
  
  
• Trump is trying to, in effect, reopen negotiations, so as to replace the ABC debate with one hosted by Fox.

Which of these it is, we do not know. However, we will say again that if Trump dodges Harris, after having debated Biden, he's going to get a lot of blowback. "Trump is afraid to debate Harris," Democrats and pundits will say, over and over and over. Maybe that blowback is less damaging than showing up and getting wrecked by Harris in front of a national audience. Although even if that is the case, given Trump's ego, and in particular his macho persona, he simply may not be able to handle accusations of being afraid, and may show up even if it's not the smart thing to do. (Z)