Jul.24

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The Latest from GOPland...

As you may have heard, it's been a busy week in politics. The Republican response to the change at the top of the ticket has been... interesting, to say the least. Here's a rundown of the most notable storylines:

• Cold Feet, Part I: It has been less than a week, and—surprise, surprise!—Donald Trump is already having second thoughts about choosing J.D. Vance as his running mate.
  
  There are three, somewhat related, problems here. The first, and the biggest, is that Vance is a terrible pick for current circumstances. Republican insiders concede that they did not really expect Vance to win over any new voters; his job was to fire up the MAGA crowd and increase turnout among the base. But up against Harris, Trump could really use someone who might pull in a few moderate/independent votes. And what the Trump campaign really doesn't need, up against a woman candidate, is someone with a mile-long track record of statements and political positions that are distasteful to women voters. At various times, Vance has said that abortions should ONLY be available if the mother's life is in danger, that women who do not have children (specifically, Harris) are unhappy "childless cat ladies," that the government should be able to aggressively monitor women—including their menstruation schedules—to make sure they aren't getting illegal abortions, and that women stuck in violent marriages should stay for the benefit of their kids. Do you think the Democrats might bring some of these things up during the campaign? We do. And so does Trump.
  
  Second, Trump and his operation (particularly his sons) did not anticipate how much of a problem Vance's negatives would be. As we wrote yesterday, some Trumpers are rebelling against a man who is married to a non-Christian, non-white woman. In addition, Trump & Co. apparently did not foresee that there would be enormous attention paid to Vance's very numerous and very pointed anti-Trump comments.
  
  Third, and finally, Trump must be at least somewhat aware that Vance's polling numbers are really, really terrible. Across the various polls conducted since the Republican convention (more on this below), Vance has an average favorability rating of -6 (roughly speaking, he averages about 30% favorable and 36% unfavorable). CNN took a look, and found that he's the only VP candidate since 1980 to be underwater after the convention. And note that 1980 cutoff does not reveal that Walter Mondale or George H.W. Bush was even more unpopular than Vance, it reveals that it's not especially easy to find favorability ratings for Veeps, the further back you go.
  
  What this means, perhaps most importantly, is that Vance is even less popular than Sarah Palin was. And, as everyone reading this knows, she ended up dragging down the McCain/Palin ticket. Now, with roughly one-quarter of respondents not yet having an opinion about Vance, could his numbers improve once people get to know him better? Sure, it's possible. But given his history and his not-so-pleasant personality, you shouldn't bet on it. Remember, in his only political campaign, in which Ohio voters got to know him VERY well, he got 53% of the vote. That was enough to win, but his 6-point margin of victory was a staggering 19 points behind Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH), who won 62% to 37%.
  
  We remain skeptical that Trump would dump Vance, because that would speak to a campaign that is in disarray and is running scared, and would reflect poorly on Trump's decision-making skills. It's one thing to dump your Secretary of the Interior or your chief of staff, it's another to jettison your running mate. But it's definitely not impossible at this point.
  
  
• Cold Feet, Part II: It would seem that Trump is not the only one having second thoughts about a decision he announced just last week. Yesterday, Elon Musk sat for an interview with right-winger Jordan Peterson, and said that while he (Musk) will still be supporting the Trump campaign, he will NOT be donating $45 million/month, and really, he has NO IDEA where that figure came from.
  
  Keep in mind that $45 million/month, or about $150 million for the balance of the campaign, is nothing to Musk. If you currently have $10,000 in the bank, then it's the equivalent of your donating $6 between now and November. So, it is unlikely that Musk got gun-shy when he realized what the price tag would be. Similarly, Musk is still supporting Trump; he certainly did not return to the Democratic fold because a white guy was replaced by a Black woman.
  
  We can only come up with one explanation for Musk's sudden change of heart. Last week, he was extremely confident that Trump would win, and he wanted to be in good with the incoming administration, while not worrying about stepping on the toes of the outgoing administration. Now, the outcome of the election is far less certain. And, as a businessman, Musk must have concluded that he better not put all his eggs in one party's basket. The Democrats aren't likely to take revenge against Musk if he goes all-in on Trump, but they also aren't likely to take his calls should they hold on to the White House/Senate, or should they retake the House.
  
  
• That Did Not Take Long, Part I: We wondered if it would take more or less than 24 hours for some right-winger to claim that Harris is ineligible to be president because she's not a citizen. Turns out it was... less. In a tweet that's already been viewed more than 5 million times, a Trumper named Mike Engelman decreed: "Kamala Harris is not eligible to run for President. Neither of her parents were natural born American citizens when she was born."
  
  Harris was born in Oakland, CA, in 1964. She is thus a natural born citizen, specifically through jus soli citizenship. This was conclusively established in United States v. Wong Kim Ark, a case that, by chance, also involved someone who was born in the California Bay Area to a parent of Asian descent.
  
  Surely it's only a matter of time until Engelman or some other mouth breather is claiming that her birth certificate is a fraud, and Harris was really born in... Jamaica? Antarctica? Canada?
  
  
• That Did Not Take Long, Part II: The whole birth-certificate nonsense, in the case of both Barack Obama and Harris, is really just a dog whistle. The not-so-subtle subtext is "This person is not a REAL American, and so can't be placed in a position of power over the people who actually are REAL Americans."
  
  Another dog whistle along these same lines is the claim that [prominent person of color] did not actually EARN whatever it is they've accomplished, it was handed to them because of their race. In Obama's case, his entire academic and political career were attributed, by many right-wingers, to Affirmative Action. In Harris' case, that term is a little bit old-fashioned, and so has been replaced by "DEI." To take one example, from among many provided yesterday, Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-WY) decreed: "Intellectually, just really kind of the bottom of the barrel. I think she was a DEI hire. And I think that that's what we're seeing, and I just don't think that they have anybody else."
  
  Republican leadership, in both the House and the Senate, is imploring members not to attack Harris on the basis of her race and/or gender. Good luck with that, Mike and Mitch. Oh, and by the way, the Trump campaign has already announced that it will work to "Willie Horton" Harris. Who knew that "Willie Horton" was a verb? In any case, the infamous Willie Horton ad was the most overtly racist presidential campaign TV ad in U.S. history.
  
  
• That Did Not Take Long, Part III: Besides conspiracy theories and racist dog whistles/bullhorns, another key item in the Trumpublican bag of tricks is impeachment. They already impeached DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and they tried to impeach Biden. Yesterday, in a terribly predictable move, a Republican filed articles of impeachment against Harris. The only surprise is that it was Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN), who beat Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) to the punch.
  
  The "high crimes and misdemeanors" alleged by Ogles initially had to do with border security: "Kamala Devi Harris willfully and systematically refused to uphold the immigration laws, failed to control the border to the detriment of national security, compromised public safety, and violated the rule of law, to the manifest injury of the people of the United States..." He later filed an updated version accusing her of defrauding the American people: "Kamala Devi Harris has knowingly misled the people of the United States and the Congress of the United States, principally to obfuscate the physical and cognitive well-being of the President of the United States, Joe Biden."
  
  This is what grasping at straws looks like. We seriously doubt that Ogles' articles will see the floor of the House, as that would be very bad optics for the Republican Party. If they somehow do, and they are somehow approved, then they'll just be pencil whipped right into the garbage by Senate Democrats.
  
  
• That Did Not Take Long, Part IV: The Republicans aren't just grasping at straws metaphorically, they are also doing so literally. There was absolutely no question that Harris would be attacked as a pinko who is further left than Karl Marx; (Z) wrote that over the weekend, and (V) wrote it for yesterday's post. The Trump campaign has released its first anti-Harris ad, and it describes her as "dangerously liberal":
  
  

  Kamala Harris is dangerously liberal. pic.twitter.com/QYeReSdJuU

  — MAGA War Room (@MAGAIncWarRoom) July 23, 2024

  
  It makes us wonder what someone who is "safely liberal" would look like.
  
  The specific pinko commie policy issue that Republicans have glommed onto, for now, is a Biden administration initiative to eliminate single-use plastic items across the federal government, including plastic plates, plastic cups and plastic straws. "I mean, heck, she wants to get rid of plastic straws, for goodness sake," said Trump adviser Jason Miller in an interview with NBC. "Whereas Joe Biden was renting some of the territory on the more extreme left, Kamala Harris owns it." We told you they were literally grasping at straws.
  
  
• Take 'em to Court, Part I: You knew it was coming, and now it has. The Trump campaign has filed a complaint with the FEC, demanding that the Commission block Harris from accessing the money in the Biden-Harris war chest. We shall see what happens, but: (1) the campaign account had both Biden and Harris' names on it, and (2) it would be rather hard to argue that the $100 million that has been donated since Biden dropped out was not intended for Harris. In other words, Team Trump has a very uphill battle here, particularly since at least two of the six FEC commissioners, including one of the three Republicans, have already said Harris is entitled to the money.
  
  
• Take 'em to Court, Part II: Similarly, Trump implied that he might file suit demanding to be reimbursed for all the money his campaign spent running against Biden. Exactly where he would file that suit (FEC? Federal court?) and exactly who would be responsible for paying the reimbursement are not clear.
  
  
• Take 'em to Court, Part III: Nikki Haley also got into the act, in a small way. She sent a cease-and-desist letter to a group called "Haley Voters for Harris" telling them to stop using her name, because it implies she supports Harris. In our view, the name of the group does not imply that at all. So, if we had gotten that letter, we would have told Haley to shove it.
  
  
• It's a Conspiracy!, Part I: When right-wingers start with the conspiracies, the antisemitism is never far behind. And so it is that the GOP's favorite Jewish bugaboo, George Soros, is being accused of orchestrating Biden's demise behind the scenes.
  
  
• It's a Conspiracy!, Part II: Another popular conspiracy theory is that Biden did not actually sign the letter announcing his withdrawal from the presidential race. Here are his regular signature (top) and the signature from the letter:
  
  
  
  The "case" for forgery is that Biden usually adds "Jr." and he does not usually underline his name. Anyhow, because of the alleged forgery, many Trumpers are claiming, the withdrawal is not valid, and Biden is still the Democratic candidate.
  
  This is, of course, all kinds of stupid. There is no "legal" procedure for withdrawing from the race. Biden can sign a letter, send a tweet, give a speech, or just circulate his decision among prominent Democrats. Even if it turned out someone else signed the letter, it would not matter one bit, unless Biden announced he was still in the race and he still wanted to be the nominee. He has, of course, made no such announcement.
  
  
• It's a Conspiracy!, Part III: The even more unhinged conspiracy theory is that Biden is either on death's door, or is already dead. How stupid is this one? All you really need to know is that Lauren Boebert is the loudest champion of this particular line of "thinking." She has probably seen the movie El Cid one too many times. After all, it does star gun nut Charlton Heston.
  
  
• She Nearly Got Me Killed!: Donald Trump is also workshopping his personal lines of attack against Harris. Yesterday, after once again congratulating himself on his pseudo-martyrdom, he declared that it was Biden and Harris who nearly got him killed. Because if you check the Constitution, it says that the two official duties of the vice president are to preside over the Senate and to keep a close eye on the United States Secret Service.
  
  
• Nickname: Trump also debuted his new nickname for Harris: Lyin' Kamala Harris. Even by his rather low standards, isn't that kind of... sad? Plus, Trump already used that for "Lyin' Joe Biden." Although, in Biden's case, at least it basically rhymes.
  
  
• Let's Debate: Trump has already answered the question that was on everyone's mind, speaking with reporters yesterday, he said that he is "absolutely" willing to debate Harris, even if the debate is hosted by ABC.
  
  Note that saying he is WILLING to debate is not quite the same thing as saying he WILL debate. We assume Trump's words were chosen to give him an out, along the lines of "I was willing, but ABC very unfairly [fill in grievance here]." This said, if he doesn't show up, it's going to look like he's scared to face off against Harris, which is not great for his macho image. We certainly hope he does show up; it will be very interesting to see how he matches up against a veteran prosecutor.

From all of this, we draw two major conclusions. The first is that the famous modern-day GOP messaging discipline breaks down when it bumps into the famous modern-day GOP propensity toward racism and misogyny. It's just too tempting for some members of the red team, including the guy at the top of the ticket, to try to make political hay out of Harris' race and/or gender. And the fact is, such behavior is rewarded by the crowds at rallies, conferences, etc. The problem is that it doesn't play well with the electorate at large.

The second conclusion is that it sure looks like the Republicans got caught flat-footed by Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race. Members of the red team are running around like chickens with their heads cut off, and are throwing anything and everything at the wall to see what sticks. That includes, once again, the guy at the top of the ticket.

Up until this point in the cycle, the Trump campaign had been pretty impressive in terms of being a polished, professional operation, as compared to the seat-of-the-pants approach we saw in 2016. But to be unprepared for the switch from Biden to Harris? That's amateur hour. First of all, Biden's demise became much more likely than not at least a week ago. Second, even if Biden's demise was a longshot, a political party has to be prepared for all eventualities. For all the Will-Rogers-style snark about how the Democrats are constantly disorganized, we 100% guarantee you that the party leadership is prepared, should J.D. Vance or Nikki Haley or Gov. Ron DeSantis suddenly become the Republican nominee.

Anyhow, we suspect this won't be the only item like this that we'll have in the next week or two. (Z)