Dem
51
GOP
49
Two respected pollsters have Joe Biden behind in two must-win states, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Three points is within the margin of error, but it is less probable for both of them to be that far off in Michigan than it is for them both to have the right of it. Pennsylvania, the swing state with the most EVs, is even worse. Biden is in Delaware recovering from COVID, but he has some hard choices to make, and probably this weekend. Choice 1: Do I stay in or get out? Choice 2: If I get out do I endorse anyone?
Note that Politico is reporting that Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) wants an open convention so folks like us have something exciting to write about. She is not against Harris as the nominee, but she feels if it is Harris, she has to earn it by beating the other POTUS wannabees. If Biden just crowns her, that will not sit well with many voters who are lukewarm about her. If she has to compete with Govs. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and others, and beats them, then she is clearly who the Democrats want and has earned the nomination on her own. (V)
| State | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Start | End | Pollster |
| Massachusetts | 47% | 29% | Jul 16 | Jul 18 | Suffolk U. |
| Michigan | 43% | 46% | Jul 13 | Jul 16 | Civiqs |
| Michigan | 46% | 49% | Jul 17 | Jul 18 | PPP |
| New York | 52% | 41% | Jul 18 | Jul 19 | SoCal Research |
| Pennsylvania | 42% | 46% | Jul 13 | Jul 16 | Civiqs |
| Pennsylvania | 44% | 49% | Jul 17 | Jul 18 | PPP |
| Wisconsin | 47% | 47% | Jul 13 | Jul 16 | Civiqs |