Jul.19

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

BidenWatch 2024: Pride Goeth Before the Fall?

Things are moving fast and furious on the Joe Biden front. And these days, most of the news is adverse. A quick rundown of yesterday's developments:

• Another Senior Moment?: Biden did yet another interview, this one with BET. It is not clear exactly when it was recorded, but it was released by the broadcaster yesterday. Here it is:
  
  
  
  On the whole, he was strong. Perhaps a 7.5 on the scale of 0 (debate Biden) to 10 (SOTU Biden). However, there was a moment, which you can watch by clicking here, where he may have forgotten the name of Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and he definitely garbled the name of Associate Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson.
  
  We have watched the clip several times, and are still not sure if he actually forgot Austin's name, or if he was merely making a general point about Black appointees. But this nonetheless illustrates the problem that Biden faces, namely that he can be fine for 20 minutes, and be maybe off his game for 10 seconds, and people glom on to the 10 seconds. It's not fair. But it is reality.
  
  
• Obama: The biggest shoe appears to be close to dropping. Yesterday, it was reported that Barack Obama has told prominent Democrats that Biden's path to victory has "significantly narrowed." If Obama were to go public with a call for Biden to drop out, that probably wouldn't be survivable.
  
  
• Another Senator Goes Public: Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT) called on Biden to drop out, future senator Adam Schiff (D-CA) has joined him and Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) came as close to that line as is possible without actually crossing it. Yesterday, Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), who might need presidential coattails more than any other Democrat, officially joined the list: "[W]hile I appreciate his commitment to public service and our country, I believe President Biden should not seek re-election to another term."
  
  
• Another Representative Is Twisting Biden's Arm: Unlike Tester, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) hasn't gone public... yet. But behind the scenes, he has implored Biden to consider dropping out. He's one of the five or ten most prominent House Democrats.
  
  
• Team Biden: Off the record, many White House staffers have reportedly said Biden needs to go. Meanwhile, several former Biden staffers are putting their names to a petition calling him to drop out.
  
  
• Insecurity: Right now, national security pros are holding the annual Aspen Security Forum. Normally, they stay out of politics. And normally, they think Biden knows what he's talking about when it comes to national security. However, several of the attendees—speaking anonymously—told reporters yesterday that they think Biden's continuation in office makes the nation less safe.
  
  
• The Worst Kind of Poll: We have repeatedly noted that public polling, in general, does not support the conclusion that the Democrats would be better off with a different candidate. However, we've also pointed out that party insiders have access to polling that the general public does not. Polls like the latest from BlueLabs, which says that there are four Democrats who would outperform Biden by 4-5 points in the battleground states: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD), Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI). Kamala Harris outperforms Biden, too, but by less than this quartet.

So, was there any good news for the President yesterday? Only a little. A group of 1,400 prominent Black women leaders released a letter calling for the Democrats to stick with Biden and to close ranks behind him. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez released an Instagram video saying the same.

But on the whole, the tea leaves are not looking good for Biden. Some Democrats now say it's inevitable he will drop out, and Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has been telling allies that she thinks he can be persuaded to leave the race.

As to Biden himself, people in his orbit say he's begun pondering the possibility that his position may be untenable, and he has reportedly started asking "Do you think Kamala can win?" On the other hand, after Donald Trump's convention speech, his campaign said the President was "more determined than ever" to defeat Trump again. So, who knows what his thinking really is? Whatever is going to happen, it really has to happen soon. It is hard to imagine this drama extending beyond next weekend; either Biden will withdraw, or the Democrats will have to shut their yaps. (Z)