Dem
51
GOP
49
Donald Trump continues to have good luck on the legal front. Judge Aileen Cannon threw out the Mar-a-Lago documents case because according to her, 30 years of special counsels have been operating illegally, so Jack Smith has no authority to bring a case against Trump. Smith appealed the ruling yesterday. He didn't ask for Cannon to be removed from the case, but could yet do that. The appeals court could take months to reach a decision, although courts can also move quickly when they want to. The Jan. 6 case in D.C. has been set back by the Supreme Court's immunity ruling that presidents are mostly sorta like kings.
The most damaging case left is the Georgia RICO case, because it is a state case and Trump could not pardon himself if he is convicted there. He got a lucky break there when Fulton County D.A. Fani Willis mixed work with fun, and commenced a relationship with the lead prosecutor. He quit the case but Trump sued, saying Fani Willis also had to drop off the case. The judge admonished her for not having more sense, but kept her on the case. Trump appealed. Now the appeals court has scheduled oral hearings for the appeal on Dec. 5. The three-judge panel will have until mid-March to issue a ruling. If Willis can stay on the case, then the trial will be able to begin in late spring at the earliest. If Trump loses the election, the trial will indeed take place then. If he is in the White House, Trump will surely ask the Supreme Court to rule that sitting presidents can't be tried, even in state courts.
At this point, there are four legal events that could still happen before the election, with varying amounts of danger for Trump. First, and least dangerous, is that the appeals court in the E. Jean Carroll civil defamation case could order Trump to pay Carroll $88 million. He could try appealing to the New York Court of Appeals, but that court could deny cert on the grounds that this is just a routine defamation case. In the worst case, he could just pay her and be done with it.
Second, a different appeals court could rule on the case NY AG Letitia James brought and order Trump to pay a fine of over half a billion dollars for defrauding the New York banks. Again, Trump could try to go to the Court of Appeals. This is a more complicated case with a greater chance of getting cert.
Third, Judge Tanya Chutkan could begin hearings in August or September on whether riling up a crowd to storm the Capitol is a core constitutional duty of the president. The hearing could allow Jack Smith to present all his evidence and remind voters of what Trump did on Jan. 6. There is no chance that the trial could begin before the election.
Fourth, Judge Juan Merchan is currently scheduled to sentence Trump for his 34-count conviction on Sept. 18. Merchan could conceivably sentence Trump to 1 day per count, revoke his bail, and send him to Rikers Island immediately for a 34-day free vacation at the expense of New York State. It's his call. Arguments like "I'm too busy now to go to jail" might not impress the judge, whom Trump has repeatedly insulted. (V)