Dem
51
GOP
49
While many Republicans are confident that Donald Trump will be elected president, they are much less confident that Republican Senate candidates will be able to grab onto his coattails and coast to wins themselves. Polling shows the Democrat is leading the Republican in every competitive Senate race except Montana. In many cases, the Democrat is running 10 points or more ahead of Joe Biden. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is running 14 points ahead of Biden. In Virginia, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) is running 15 points ahead of Biden.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), head of the NRSC, acts like he is not worried. He noted that in 68 of the past 69 Senate races in presidential years, the party that won the state's electoral votes also won the Senate race. The only exception was the 2020 Maine race in which Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) was reelected while Joe Biden carried the state. But this year could be different since Biden is personally unpopular, not the Democratic Party.
Polling shows that the average Democratic candidate in the 11 most competitive races leads the Republican 55% to 45% with Biden on top of the ticket. With Harris on top of the ticket, the Senate Democrats do better, 56% to 44%. With Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) as the presidential nominee, it gets even better, 57% to 43%
Among plausible outcomes, the best case for the Democrats is winning all the competitive races. That is entirely feasible as they are ahead everywhere now except Montana, and the last poll there could be a fluke, as Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) has won three times there already and is running against a guy from Minnesota. But even if the Democrats win all those races, they will have only 50 seats in the Senate because West Virginia is completely lost. With a 50-50 Senate, President of the Senate J.D. Vance would have a full-time job back in the Senate, where he is now. Only in a Trump administration, he would be breaking ties all the time. He could end up as one of the most powerful veeps ever.
In order to actually block Trump's nominees, Democrats would need to oust one or more incumbent Republicans. The most likely races are in Texas, where Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) is polling only 3 points behind Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Florida, where former representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is challenging Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). It is not surprising that the Democrats' best chances are against the two senators most disliked by all the other senators. Still, counting on ticket splitting in two fairly red states is like counting on a miracle.
Since the entire House is up in November, the Democrats have a greater chance of winning that than winning the Senate. If they can capture the House, they can block all legislation except the budget, forcing a potential President Trump to govern by XO. That is a much weaker position than getting Congress to pass laws and allocate funds as he wishes. (V)