Dem
51
GOP
49
Soon-to-be-Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) yesterday called for Joe Biden to step aside and let a younger Democrat run in his place. He said he had serious concerns about Biden being able to win the race. Now, 22 other Democrats in Congress have called for Biden to drop out, but this one is important for a special reason. He is very close with Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). It is unlikely that he would have gone public, as he did yesterday in an interview with the Los Angeles Times, without first discussing it carefully with Pelosi. If she had strongly advised him not to go public, we doubt he would have, as it damages Biden if he stays on. This is not a joke. He (and probably Pelosi) now really want Biden out. They surely think the public perception of Biden as a kindly, but way-past-his-prime leader, is now too solid to change no matter how many interviews his gives. And what matters is the public perception, not the reality. That's politics.
Before putting in the dagger, Schiff praised Biden: "Biden has been one of the most consequential presidents in our nation's history, and his lifetime of service as a Senator, a Vice President, and now as President has made our country better. But our nation is at a crossroads. A second Trump presidency will undermine the very foundation of our democracy, and I have serious concerns about whether the President can defeat Donald Trump in November."
Biden surely understands that Schiff wouldn't have gone public without his close friend Pelosi's approval. She apparently didn't want to go public herself yet to avoid massive damage to Biden should he stay in. But the message is clear: Pelosi, one of the shrewdest people in D.C., thinks Biden has to go.
A problem facing the Democrats is if Biden takes too long to drop out, there won't be time for a miniprimary in any form and Kamala Harris will have to be the nominee without having really earned it by beating other contenders. If there is a series of debates or town halls with other contenders and Harris comes out on top, she will have a lot more credibility than if the White House just sends a puff of white smoke up the chimney and announces it is Harris.
Biden is digging his heels in and doesn't seem to be budging, with very little time left. One thing he said yesterday is that he would drop out if he were diagnosed with a medical condition. This might allow him to save some face dropping out. He could ask his personal physician: "Hey, doc, do I have anything?" and the doctor could surely find something.
Note that all of the previous paragraphs were written early in the day on Wednesday. Just hours after (V) handed the baton to (Z), which happens around 2:00 PT, the White House announced that Biden has tested positive for COVID-19. Meanwhile, and consistent with Schiff's public declaration, CNN reported that Pelosi has privately told Biden he cannot win, and he's going to cost the blue team the House if he tries. That means that he's now getting the full-court press from Congress' three most prominent Democrats: Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY).
Assuming Biden is planning to stay in the race, then the COVID-19 diagnosis really could not come at a worse time. Yes, everyone knows that anyone can get COVID at any age. Still, for Biden to fall ill in a way that leaves him incapacitated nonetheless underscores the notion that he's old, infirm, etc. It's not fair, but there's nothing in the Constitution that says voters' decision making has to be fair or evidence-based.
The second problem is that the President is now sidelined at a time when he really needs to be out and about. He had to cancel an event in Nevada yesterday and, obviously, he was not able to meet with any members of Congress to try to get them back on board. Further, if he had a standard cold, or some other such condition, he could get back to work as soon as he felt well enough. But with this particular disease, if he hurries his return, he opens himself up to accusations that he was willing to put people's lives at risk in service of his own personal political needs.
On the other hand, if you want to get conspiratorial, then a COVID-19 diagnosis could give Biden cover for bowing out. He could say something like: "I have contracted this terrible disease at a particularly tough time, and I cannot allow the Democratic Party to suffer because of it. To that end, I am going to step down as the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one."
And note that even if the COVID diagnosis does not conveniently fill in a blank that needed to be filled, it could push Biden over the edge, nonetheless. That is to say, even if he had intended to stay the course, the illness might cause him to say: "You know, this is a pretty good reminder that man is mortal. Maybe I don't want to spend some major chunk of my remaining years doing the most stressful job on earth, and instead I'd like to retire to a life of leisure and family time. In fact, maybe this is the sign from God that I talked about with George Stephanopoulos."
The upshot here is that the writing on the wall is getting quite large. Earlier this week, maybe it was in a 50-point font. Now, maybe it's in a 100-point font. The last Democratic heavy hitter who still appears to be in Biden's corner is Barack Obama. However, he would never go public in calling for his former VP to stand down unless: (1) the Democrats felt there was no other option left, or (2) Biden's demise was already a done deal. So, Obama's semi-silence is not necessarily instructive. He might also be working behind the scenes to get Biden to drop out.
One other thing. Very late yesterday, DNC member Donna Brazile let slip that the Committee has delayed the virtual roll-call vote that was set to nominate Biden. The Committee is not announcing this loudly, as that would be embarrassing for Biden and would be more fodder for "Democrats in disarray" stories. However, the roll call WAS going to start next week, and now it's been pushed back to early August. Clearly, the DNC thinks a change in ticket is a real possibility.
The bottom line is that yesterday was not a good day for the President. We'll say more below, in the discussion of the day's new polls. (V & Z)