Dem
51
GOP
49
In an outcome that should be a surprise to nobody, Sen. Bob Menendez' (D-NJ) habit of using his political offices to enrich himself finally caught up with him yesterday, as a jury found him guilty on 16 felony counts, including acting as a foreign agent, bribery, extortion, obstruction of justice and wire fraud. If he were to get the maximum on each count, and the sentences were to be served consecutively, then he would be in prison until 2246, getting out just in time to see the next Chicago Bears Super Bowl victory. As a first-time offender, he's not going to get the max, of course. But with 16 felony convictions, he's not going to get a slap on the wrist, either. And at 70 years of age, even a relatively short sentence could be a de facto life sentence.
Menendez claims he's not guilty, and that the jury misunderstood the evidence, and that the judge applied the laws wrong and yada, yada, yada. Pretty much all convicted white-collar criminals say the same thing. Blue-collar criminals, too. After all, as Red tells Andy in The Shawshank Redemption: "Everyone in here is innocent, you know that?" Anyhow, the Senator has now been convicted in one trial, and he escaped conviction in a second trial based on a technicality. So, he's exhausted the benefit of the doubt. Plus, all we really care about is the political situation, a story that has a maximum shelf life of about 4 months. Since his appeal will not be heard until next year, his criminal status is not going to change between now and the election.
So, what is the political situation? Well, after the verdict was announced yesterday, more than a dozen Senate Democrats called on him to step down. The most significant, among that dozen-plus, are Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Menendez' junior colleague, Cory Booker (D-NJ). If he goes gentle into that good night, it would make life easier for his fellow Democrats.
That said, Menendez does not seem to be the type to fall on his sword, even if doing so is clearly called for. Thus far, he's largely been in denial of his circumstances, up to and including launching an independent run to keep his seat even after New Jersey voters signaled that they were done being represented by him. Staying the course would certainly be consistent with his insistence that he's innocent, and that this is all a sham, and that he will ultimately be vindicated.
If Menendez does not go willingly, then what? Certainly, the Senate could expel him. This is very rare; a senator has not been formally expelled since 1862, when a whole bunch of Democrats were booted for supporting the Southern rebellion. The last senator expelled for commission of a crime was William Blount (D-R, TN), who got tossed a mere 227 years ago. The caveat here is the reason it's been so long is that most senators, when they find themselves in hot water, take the hint and spare themselves and their colleagues the necessity of an expulsion vote. In 1982, for example, Harrison A. Williams—another New Jersey Democrat—resigned in order to avoid expulsion for his role in the Abscam scandal. And in 1995, Bob Packwood—an Oregon Republican—resigned to avoid expulsion for enriching himself (sound familiar?) and for gross sexual misconduct.
Is there any chance that Menendez could avoid expulsion? Sure, there's a chance. In 2008, Ted Stevens (R-AK), was convicted of corruption a week before Election Day. Rather than expel him, the Senate left his fate to voters, and the voters decided to send Stevens packing (although, in his case, the conviction actually WAS vacated). It's possible Schumer & Co. could decide an expulsion would harm the chances of Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ), who is running for Menendez' seat right now, perhaps by driving some voters into the "Menendez is a martyr" camp. Alternatively, Republicans would like to associate the Democratic Party with the stench of corruption to the greatest extent possible. So, there may not be the necessary Republican votes (approx. 17 of them) to cashier Menendez.
If Menendez does vacate his seat, voluntarily or otherwise, it would fall to Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ) to appoint someone to serve the balance of the Senator's term. So, who might he turn to? One possibility is Kim, with the notion that would give him a jump start on learning the ropes and on seniority. However, that would leave a seat in the House vacant, at a time when every vote counts. Another possibility is Murphy's wife, who was running for the seat this year, until it became clear she could not win. But that would be very bad optics.
Our guess, if Murphy does get to choose, is that he will go in one of two directions. He could take the Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) approach, and pick someone like Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-CA) as a tip of the cap to one or more left-wing constituencies. For example, Murphy could tap Lillian Corcoran, director of New Jersey's Women's Rights Information Center. Alternatively, Murphy could choose a former senator, with the notion that they already know the song and dance. As chance would have it, there are three former Democratic senators from New Jersey who are still living: Bill Bradley, Robert Torricelli and Jon Corzine. Yes, they are all 72 or older, but that's young by the standards of present-day Washington, DC. And they would only have to serve for a few months, at a time when the Senate will often be in recess.
Whatever is going to happen, it will happen pretty quickly. So, we should know Menendez' political fate within the week. (Z)