Dem
51
GOP
49
A new poll by the University of Houston on the Texas Senate race has Ted Cruz at 47% and Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) at 44%. Another 3% said they would vote for Libertarian Party candidate Ted Brown. The remaining 6% were undecided. Texas is deep red, but Cruz is deeply unpopular. He is one of the few things all the other 99 senators agree on: They think Cruz is a big jerk. He is also very unpopular in Texas, but Texas is very red, so it is tough for any Democrat to win statewide, even against an unpopular candidate.
In 2018, Cruz beat Beto O'Rourke by about 2½%. That is where Allred is now. One thing Allred has going for him is he is not that well known, so he has room to grow and pick up some of the undecideds. Cruz is very well known, with 49% having a favorable opinion of him and 48% having an unfavorable opinion of him.
Moneywise, Allred is doing well. He raised $10.5 million in Q2 vs. the $12.6 Cruz raised. For a two-term sitting senator to barely outraise a representative is not a great showing. The Cook Report rates the race as likely Republican simply because the state is so red. But the fact that so many Texans dislike Cruz along with Allred's good fundraising could make it a real horse race. (V)