Dem
51
GOP
49
The Trump National Convention starts today in Milwaukee. It is expected that at least 50,000 people will descend on the city for the event. These include the usual suspects: delegates, alternate delegates, Republican politicians, donors, reporters, media crews, TV anchors, spinmasters, photographers, bloggers, technical personnel, public safety teams, medical personnel, prostitutes, alternate prostitutes, and more. Protesters are probably not included in the RNC count, but you betcha that more than a couple will show up.
Milwaukee itself has only 6,104 hotel rooms. The greater Milwaukee area has 19,831 rooms, which is still not enough, so some folks may have to stay in Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, or maybe even Madison, 65 miles away.
The only possible big surprise is the choice of Donald Trump's running mate. But even that may not be a huge surprise. If we had to guess, it would be Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) in first place, Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) in second place and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in a distant third place. But with Trump, anything is possible, especially after Saturday. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA)? Barron is not old enough, but Ivanka, Junior, and Eric are.
This year will be different from 2016 and 2020. In 2016, the party was badly split. In 2020, it was a little bit split. Now the Republican Party is entirely owned by Donald Trump. Don't expect anything like Sen. Ted Cruz' (R-TX) 2016 speech in which he refused to endorse Trump. The full list of speakers hasn't been released yet, but you can be sure every one has been vetted carefully and all will be 100% behind Trump. At the last minute, Nikki Haley was added to the speakers' list. She thinks that being half-Trumper, half not-Trumper is a good strategy for 2028. We think she is very wrong. Nevertheless, her speech will probably mostly attack Joe Biden rather than praise Trump to the moon.
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will also get a speaking slot, another last-minute decision. Trump's two eldest sons, Junior and Eric, will speak. His daughters and wife will not speak. Trump skeptics, including Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Rand Paul (R-KY), Mitt Romney (R-UT) and Todd Young (R-IN), are not going to bother showing up due to "conflicts" (i.e., they don't want the stench of Trump to rub off on them). In addition to various politicians, there will also be "ordinary Americans" from all walks of life giving pitches for Trump.
Also different is that in 2016 and 2020, the Democrats were reasonably united behind Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, respectively. Sure, some of the Bernie folks didn't like Hillary, but they hated Trump. This time, the Democrats are much less united as many of them want Biden out, even at this late date.
Will there be a platform fight? Probably not, but if Trump says abortion should be up to the states, the anti-abortion forces won't like it. Will they cause trouble? We doubt it. They know that if Congress passes a national ban, Trump will sign it, no matter what the platform says.
The warm-up speakers for the first 3 days will just praise Trump to the moon and call Joe Biden a doddering idiot. Trump will speak on Thursday. There are two things we don't know yet. First, will he focus on the past (the 2020 election) or the future (what he will do as president)? Second, will he make any attempt to woo moderate Republicans, or is this going to be a base-only campaign?
The campaign has announced a theme for each day, as follows:
Will there be protests? Yup, but far away. Milwaukee will be totally locked down and protesters have been assigned an area miles from the convention hall. There will be a heavy police presence throughout the city and any attempt by the protesters to get anywhere near the convention will be snuffed out by force very quickly. Besides, the protesters know that no number of protesters will have any effect at all on the Republicans. Instead, they are keeping their powder dry for the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where riots could have a huge impact—namely, electing Trump. That will teach the Democrats! (V)