Jul.11

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

What Happened When the Democrats Changed Horses Midstream in the Past?

There aren't any examples of either party changing its presidential candidate this late in the game, but there are two examples of swapping out a Senate candidate this late. How did that go?

• New Jersey, 2002: The Democratic Senate nominee in New Jersey in 2002 was incumbent Bob Torricelli. He was corrupt. He was Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ)-level corrupt. He had endured a federal investigation involving a donor, David Chang, who showered Torricelli with luxury gifts and cash. The feds were not 100% sure they could prove their case and declined to indict Torricelli. The Senate Ethics Committee sprung into action and admonished Torricelli. By September, the Republican nominee, Doug Forrester, had drawn even with him—in New Jersey.
  
  In the last week of September, there was an early Octoberish Surprise. A court ordered the feds to release a memo that said there was plenty of evidence showing that Torricelli had taken bribes from Chang. This led to Forrester taking a 13-point lead over Torricelli. The Democrats had a single-seat majority in the Senate and a loss in New Jersey would have blown it. Party leaders sat on Torricelli until he yelled uncle. He dropped out on Sept. 30.
  
  With just 5 weeks to go, what could the Democrats do? They convinced former three-term Democratic senator Frank Lautenberg, who had retired in 2001, to go for one last hurrah. The Republicans screamed but the state Supreme Court allowed the swap. It turns out that voters were furious with the corrupt Torricelli, but not with the Democratic Party. Lautenberg crushed Forrester, was reelected in 2008 and served most of one more term, then died in 2013.
  
  
• Minnesota, 2002: On Oct. 25, 2002, just days before the election, Sen. Paul Wellstone (DFL-MN), who was a folk hero to progressives, died in a plane crash along with his wife, daughter, and five others. Again, control of the Senate was at stake. Democrats had to find a new candidate within, say, 24 hours or so. They asked Walter Mondale, Jimmy Carter's veep and by then an elder statesman who was well known in the state, to run. He refused to say whether he was in until after Wellstone's memorial service on Oct. 29.
  
  The service was held and 20,000 people showed up. It got political fast, and some speakers urged everyone to vote Democratic to continue Wellstone's legacy. Some people didn't like that. The independent governor, Jesse Ventura, walked out to protest the political tone. Mondale did jump in, but Republican Norm Coleman won by 2 points.
  

So it was a split decision. In one case, the new candidate pulled it off, but in the other, he didn't. Maybe it was the timing. Who knows? Would Kamala Harris or someone else do better than Joe Biden? The polls now don't mean much. No one knows. (V)