Dem
51
GOP
49
Joe Biden's weakness is showing up in all the swing states, but also in states that are not supposed to be swing states—like New York. Four years ago, Biden won the Empire State by 23 points. Recent polls put him only 8 points ahead. That would be fine in, say, Minnesota or Virginia, but it is not fine for him in New York. It is not like there is any danger of Biden losing New York, but there are nine House races in the state that could determine control of the House. A weak top of the ticket with no coattails could cost the Democrats the House. Here are the nine races, sorted by PVI and color coded by the incumbent's party:
| District | PVI | Incumbent |
| NY-11 | R+6 | Nicole Malliotakis (R) |
| NY-01 | R+3 | Nick LaLota (R) |
| NY-02 | R+3 | Andrew Garbarino (R) |
| NY-17 | D+3 | Mike Lawler (R) |
| NY-19 | EVEN | Marc Molinaro (R) |
| NY-18 | D+1 | Pat Ryan (D) |
| NY-22 | D+1 | Brandon Williams (R) |
| NY-03 | D+2 | Tom Suozzi (D) |
| NY-04 | D+5 | Anthony D'Esposito (R) |
As you can see, Democrats could potentially pick up as many as seven House seats if they run the tables in New York in the competitive districts. Biden +8 won't do it, though. He has to do better. Maybe he has to campaign there, but that takes time away from campaigning in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, not to mention Arizona, which might be winnable on account of Rep. Ruben Gallego's (D-AZ) coattails and the toxic Republican candidate, Kari Lake. As an aside, the Trump campaign recently said that they believe these are the only four real swing states. They think they have Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina locked up. (V)