Dem
51
GOP
49
The mess around who will be the Democratic nominee for president is ongoing, with contradictory signs abounding. Some things work for Joe Biden continuing and some work against him. One thing that works for him is the clock. The longer he can hang on, the better for him. The Democrats really can't replace him the day before the convention. That would be an unmitigated disaster. If he survives the next 2 weeks, he's probably safe. Biden is a little bit like a sports team with a small lead and the clock is ticking. He is just running out the clock.
One thing working in Biden's favor (but which nobody will say out loud) is that many Democrats believe if he is replaced by Kamala Harris, the ticket will lose droves of older working-class white men who have no interest whatsoever in a Black woman as president. But if he is replaced by someone other than Harris, Black women will be furious. There is no Plan B. "Someone Else" was born in Toronto 33 years ago and is not eligible.
On the other hand, progressives are sticking with Biden, not sticking it to Biden. It's interesting now because, in the past, progressives have been critical of him for not pushing harder for change. Now some of the members of the House who have been his biggest critics on Middle East policy are his strongest supporters. Rep. Ilhan Omar (DFL-MN), not exactly a big fan of Israel, said: "He's been the best president of my lifetime and we have his back." And Barack Obama was definitely president in her lifetime. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) said: "The matter is closed. He is in this race and I support him." Other Squad members, including Ayanna Pressley (D-MA) and Greg Casar (D-TX), are also strongly supportive of Biden. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) said Biden is one of the most progressive presidents since FDR.
All of these progressives point to the fact that Biden has actually gotten a lot done, maybe on account of his bipartisanship. He got an infrastructure bill through; he got Medicare permission to negotiate drug prices; he appointed Lina Khan, a consumer advocate, to lead the Federal Trade Commission; they like his support for Julie Su as acting secretary of labor, and much more. All of a sudden, the guy they were lukewarm about has become their hero. They are not demanding that he step aside for a more progressive ticket. It's the moderates, like Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), who are wetting their pants, not the progressives.
New among the pants-wetters is actor George Clooney. Yesterday, he asked Biden to drop out in an op-ed in—wait for it—The New York Times. Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is urging Biden to make a decision soon. Of course, he has said 100 times that he is staying in and Pelosi has surely heard it, but this could be her way of politely suggesting to him that it's over. Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT) said that an "uphill race" has become an "up-mountain" race.
Biden probably won't listen to them, but he might listen to his campaign finance manager. The problem is that donations are drying up. The July haul looks to be less than half the June haul. The donors don't think he can win and don't want to waste their money on him. That sends a strong message. And donors are the most loyal, diehard Democrats. (V)