Jul.10

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

The Tide Turns?

Maybe the Democrats are better off if Joe Biden stands down. Maybe they are better off if Biden stays the course. It is difficult to know, one way or another. What is more clear is that Biden looks to be riding out the storm, and retaining his place as the Democratic nominee.

It is true that there was some adverse news for the President yesterday. Let's run down those stories first:

• The First Senator... Almost: Although Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) has come dangerously close to calling on Biden to drop out, he hasn't actually pulled the trigger. Yesterday, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) inched a little closer to that line, and shared his opinion that the Biden campaign has "done nothing to really demonstrate that they have a plan to win this election," and that the President could lose "in a landslide" and cost the Democrats the House and the Senate while doing it.
  
  Truth be told, we don't think very highly of the Senator's analysis. To start, it is nonsense that a major-party presidential campaign does not have a plan to win an election. This is a talking point that sounds significant, but is just hot air. The plan may not be agreeable to some people, it may not be evident to others, but you can bet your bottom dollar (and then some) that both Biden '24 and Trump '24 have a plan.
  
  Beyond that, there is going to be no landslide. Donald Trump's ceiling is very low, and any Democrat who faces him will have a pretty high floor. The former president may win a close election, he may lose a close election, but his base-only approach and his record both make a landslide highly implausible. As to the notion of Biden taking down the whole Democratic ship with him, in our writeup of the debate, we observed that if the President's campaign really does falter, it will cause resources to be redirected to the Congressional races, particularly the House races, as a hedge against Trump. This is exactly what is happening right now, at least with the donors.
  
  
• The Seventh Representative: There are about four times as many Democratic representatives as there are Democratic senators. So, it stands to reason that there would be more of the former willing to come right out and say Biden should go. Yesterday, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11, D+6) became the seventh House Democrat to do so. "[B]ecause I know President Biden cares deeply about the future of our country, I am asking that he declare that he won't run for reelection and will help lead us through a process toward a new nominee," she said in a statement.
  
  
• Stephanopoulos Speaks: While he was walking the streets of New York City, a pedestrian with a camera approached George Stephanopoulos and asked "Do you think Biden should step down? You've talked to him more than anyone else has lately." Stephanopoulos opined that Biden is not up to another 4 years in office, although he later apologized for allowing himself to be trapped like that.
  
  
• The New York Times Speaks Again (and Again, and Again...): In case you didn't know where the eddi board of The New York Times stands, they weighed in yesterday with their second piece in under a week calling for Biden to step down. Under the headline "The Democratic Party Must Speak the Plain Truth to the President," the board writes:

  By departing the race, Mr. Biden can focus public attention on Mr. Trump's capacity to perform the job of president. Mr. Trump, of course, should also withdraw from this race, not least because of his own cognitive deficiencies and incessant lying. He, too, is not the man he was four years ago. He also makes fewer public appearances and refuses to answer questions about his health. His habitual mendacity now frequently wanders into nonsensical incoherence. He would be the oldest person ever to be inaugurated as president—older than Mr. Biden was in 2021.

  The rest of the editorial is much in the same vein, though we chose this passage in particular, because it's crap.
  
  Why is it crap, you might ask? Well, as we note above, there are good reasons to jettison Biden and there are good reasons to stick with Biden. However, if Biden departs the race, the focus—for months, if not for the balance of the presidential cycle—will be on the Democrats' replacement and NOT on Trump. If the correct path forward is to focus on Trump and his many liabilities, as the Times suggests, the way to make that happen is for Biden to remain the candidate. It's no guarantee, but if focus on the bad debate performance fades—and it very well might with the passage of time, not to mention the distractions provided by the Republican Convention and the Olympics—that is the only path forward in which Trump's weaknesses get the lion's share of attention.
  
  Keep reading for more about both focusing on Trump's weaknesses and on The New York Times.
  
  
• The Latest Poll: There were a handful of new polls yesterday; the one getting the most attention (for reasons that will be obvious in a moment) is from Bendixen & Amandi International. They found that Biden is running 1 point behind Trump nationally (42%-43%), and many of the replacement possibilities are running worse than that (for example, Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-CA, lags Trump by 3 points, 37% to 40%, while Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, D-MI, lags him by 4 points, 36% to 40%). However, according to the pollster's numbers, there are now two non-Michelle Obama Democrats who outpoll the former president. The first is Kamala Harris, who is up one point on Trump, 42%-41%. And the second is... wait for it... Hillary Clinton, who is up 2 points on Trump, 43% to 41%.
  
  We could not decide whether to put this item in this section, or in the "good news" section that's coming up. On one hand, it's not great for a sitting president to be in the low forties, and trailing the not-so-beloved Hillary Clinton, who—as we understand it—lost her presidential election. On the other hand, Biden is at what looks to be his lowest ebb, and he's still in a statistical dead heat with the other leading Democrats. Further, the other candidate is also in the low forties, with (apparently) about 15% of the vote still potentially gettable.
  
  
• Cook Political Report: The Cook Political Report, which tends to be very cautious about these things, moved five states and one district in Trump's direction yesterday. Arizona, Georgia and Nevada went from "Toss Up" to "Lean R." Minnesota, NE-02 and New Hampshire went from "Likely D" to "Lean D."

All of this said, there was considerably more positive news for Biden yesterday:

• No Rebellion: The President sent a strongly worded letter, and then met with Democrats on The Hill yesterday. According to numerous sources, the House Democratic Caucus emerged from the meeting overwhelmingly still behind Biden. If there's going to be a mass rebellion, it's gotta come from somewhere, and it's apparently not coming from the House (or, judging by the caution of Mark Warner and Michael Bennet, from the Senate, either).
  
  
• And Then There Were Six: We note above that Mikie Sherrill became the seventh representative to call for Biden to stop down. That count was correct at the time she gave her remarks. However, shortly thereafter, Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) changed course and said there is "no choice" for Democrats but to back Biden. Nadler is one of the most senior members of the Democratic caucus, and knows a thing or two about which way the winds are blowing, even if he's not enthusiastic about it.
  
  
• The Progressive Caucus: The progressive members of Congress have also remained pretty steadfast behind Biden. Yesterday, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) went on CNN and blasted the media for putting way too much emphasis on style, and not enough on substance, decreeing that on policy there is no question as to the better choice between Biden and Trump. Meanwhile, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) spoke to reporters and said:

  I have spoken to the president over the weekend. I have spoken with him extensively. He made clear then—and he has made clear since—that he is in this race. The matter is closed. He had reiterated that this morning. He has reiterated that to the public. Joe Biden is our nominee. He is not leaving this race. He is in this race, and I support him.

  AOC may not be as senior as Nadler or Sanders, but she's also pretty shrewd when it comes to detecting which way the political winds are blowing.
  
  
• The Black Caucus: While Biden certainly wants the backing of the progressives, he simply must have the backing of the Congressional Black Caucus, as Black voters are the core of his coalition. After a meeting with them, via Zoom on Monday night, the members of the CBC came out strongly behind the president. For example, Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-FL) issued a statement that said:

  President Biden's call with the Congressional Black Caucus tonight showed his unwavering dedication to our nation's future and that he is in this fight. He's committed to fighting for the soul of our nation and Black economic progress, and I stand with him for another four years because he's consistently stood with my community.

  The other members of the CBC said similar things; none of them are among the representatives who have called for Biden to stand down.
  
  
• The NATO Speech: We put this fifth on the list because we think "No Rebellion" is more important, and the three list items after that all have to do with Congress. Do not infer from this placement that we think this is a minor story, however, because it is not. Yesterday, Biden delivered a much-anticipated speech during the gathering of NATO members that is currently taking place in Washington. Here it is if you haven't seen it already, and you want to (it's about 13 minutes):
  
  
  
  We have a few thoughts here. First, NATO Biden was just as good as SOTU Biden.
  
  Second, it is true that he had a teleprompter for the speech, but it's also true that everyone knew that would be the case when writing "the eyes of the world will be on Biden at the NATO summit." So, if a bad speech would have been a major story, then it should also be the case that a good speech would be a major story. It's not being treated that way, of course.
  
  Third, teleprompter or not, it's not possible for someone with a debilitating cognitive impairment to perform this well.
  
  
• Debunked?: This is a messy story, one that developed significantly after we wrote yesterday's posting. Anyhow, over the weekend, The New York Post had a "scoop" that Parkinson's specialist Dr. Kevin Cannard had visited the White House numerous times. Then, on Monday, The New York Times jumped on the story, reporting that Cannard visited the White House eight times in 8 months starting last summer. Although the Times story went into some level of detail, detail that substantially complicates things, the strong implication was that Cannard was treating Biden for Parkinson's disease.
  
  With another 24 hours' worth of information, it turns out there are a number of things worth knowing here. First, Cannard is a neurologist, and is not a specialist in Parkinson's disease. A good rule of thumb is to never trust the Post to get its facts right, especially when getting them wrong serves the paper's political agenda.
  
  Second, Cannard has been the White House's on-call neurologist for over a decade, and has visited the Executive Mansion dozens of times over the years. In fact, he was a much more frequent visitor during Barack Obama's term. The Times reminds us that Biden was VP then, subtly intimating that maybe those Obama-era visits were ALSO for Biden. This is nonsense; if Biden had been suffering from Parkinson's for over a decade, he would not be able to hide it. On top of that, a person does not get FEWER visits from their neurologist as they get worse. Further, if the visits were for Biden, they would have taken place at the VP residence, not the White House.
  
  Third, Cannard—again, as the White House on-call neurologist—examined Biden earlier this year and said unequivocally that the President does not have Parkinson's or any other degenerative neurological condition.
  
  Fourth, the only reason this is a story is because the Obama and Biden White Houses have made their visitors' logs open to the public, while the Trump White House did not do so. If it was Obama (20 visits), Trump (12 visits), Biden (11 visits), there would be no meaningful pattern here. But because it's Obama (20 visits)... Biden (11 visits), it looks more suspicious.
  
  What it amounts to is that this seemingly damning story looks to be a big, fat nothing. And note that while the Times couldn't wait to get it out there, the Washington Post took a long look and decided the evidence did not support the implied conclusion. Put another way, the Cannard story was just a canard.

We would suggest there are two conclusions here. The first is that while there is still some disquiet in the Democratic ranks, there is no person or entity who really matters and who is calling for Biden to step down. We continue to believe that Jill Biden could get him to drop out, and that Barack Obama probably could, too. A unified showing from the Democratic leaders of Congress might do it. And if the Congressional Black Caucus turned against Biden, that might do it, too. But all of these folks remain on board (some with more enthusiasm than others). As long as that holds, he's going to stay in the race. Bolstering that position is that the various polls show that Biden either remains in a dead heat with Trump, or is within spitting distance of him, despite a disastrous couple of weeks.

The second conclusion, and we've written this before, is that there is a very strong media narrative right now, being embraced with particular vigor by some publications, that Biden is old and infirm and must step down. No narrative can last forever (at least, not without new fuel), and the next 6 weeks will have at least three major stories, namely the RNC, the DNC and the Olympics. Is it plausible, when there are no longer a dozen "Biden is losing his mind" stories everyday, that this storyline, along with memories of the debate, will start to fade? Yes, it is plausible, particularly if Biden doesn't do anything to bring the storyline back to life again.

Nobody knows what tomorrow will bring, in an unusually jam-packed week/lifetime for U.S. politics. But, at the moment, the overwhelming odds remain that Biden will be the Democratic candidate in the 2024 election. (Z)