Dem
51
GOP
49
If Donald Trump wins the White House, the Democrats will be desperate to control at least one chamber of Congress to prevent Trump from running rampant over the country's laws. He could do a fair amount of damage using XO's, but far more if he has the trifecta. For this reason, Democrats are surely glad to know that the two biggest House super PACs raised $51 million in Q2. They raised $37 million in Q1, for a total of $88 million so far.
There are 87 House districts in the range R+5 to D+5. These are competitive districts. Of these, 51 are represented by Democrats and 36 are represented by Republicans. If the money is spread evenly across the districts, that works out to about $1 million per district, with an emphasis on defense, but also some offense. A million dollars is serious money in a House race. Of course, all House candidates also raise their own money as well, and don't depend entirely on the national super PACs.
The Republican super PACs haven't announced their Q2 totals yet.
What is also relevant here is that those big donors who expect Trump to win are beginning to pour money into critical House and Senate races. They are interested both in bolstering Democratic incumbents and helping Democratic challengers. For example, Laura Gillen, who is challenging Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-NY) on Long Island, raised $1.9 million in Q2, triple her Q1 haul. The district is D+5 and Joe Biden carried it by 15 points in 2020, so D'Esposito is extremely vulnerable and the big donors want to make sure Gillen knocks him off. If more big donors come to believe that Trump will win, there will be an exponential increase in funding for people like Gillen, which may allow the Democrats to take back the House and possibly hold the Senate. (V)