Jul.04

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Pathways to the House Majority

Pundits often talk about "pathways to the House majority," but this year that can be interpreted fairly literally. There are two paths (well, interstate highways) that pass through (or close to) a number of the most competitive House districts. They are the I-5 out west and I-95 back east. Let's take a look at some of the key House races.

I-5

The I-5—and it's important to make sure to put the article before the name of the freeway, so people don't think you are a savage and a heathen—runs 1,400 miles from Canada to Mexico. It passes through a dozen competitive districts. Six currently have a Democratic representative and six have a Republican representative. Here is the lay of the land from north to south.

• Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) (WA-03, R+5): Washington has jungle primaries, like California. In 2022, Joe Kent (R) beat then-representative Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) for the second spot, but lost to Perez in this Republican-leaning district. It looks like a rematch, with Perez against Kent again. Perez is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the House.
  
  
• Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R) (OR-05, D+2): This district covers the Portland suburbs east of the I-5, along the Willamette Valley. It is a swing district that Joe Biden won in 2020 but that elected a Republican to Congress. Christine Drazan (R) carried the district in the 2022 gubernatorial race. The Democrat in the House race, Janelle Bynum, beat Chavez-DeRemer twice in state House races, but this is a larger district. It is rated as a toss-up.
  
  
• Andrea Salinas (D) (OR-06, D+4): This district is mostly west of the I-5 and includes the state capital, Salem, and wine country. It leans Democratic and the incumbent is a Democrat. The Republican, Mike Erickson, is personally wealthy and can self fund the race, as he did in 2022.
  
  
• Val Hoyle (D) (OR-04, D+4): This district covers the southwest corner of the state and part of the coast. The GOP nominee, Monique DeSpain, lags in fundraising, which is not good in a D+4 district. However, there are allegations of misconduct by Hoyle when she was the state's labor commissioner.
  
  
• Josh Harder (D) (CA-09, D+5): The incumbent, Josh Harder, is running against Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R-Stockton). This Central Valley district leans Democratic and Biden carried it with 56% in 2020. If Biden stumbles here, it could hurt Harder, even though he has a $2.7 million to $300,000 cash advantage now.
  
  
• John Duarte (R) (CA-13, D+4): South of CA-09, Biden also beat Trump by about the same amount in 2020. If Biden does well here, he could carry Adam Gray (D), who lost to Duarte by 2 points in 2022, to victory.
  
  
• David Valadao (R) (CA-22, D+5): David Valadao is a Republican in a moderately blue district, but he beat his current Democratic challenger, Rudy Salas, by 3 points in 2022. Biden got 55% of the vote in 2020 here, and could have coattails if he wins big again. However, Valadao does surprisingly well in blue territory for a Republican. On the other hand, Valadao voted to impeach Trump the second time and Trump is not likely to send much love his way.
  
  
• Mike Garcia (R) (CA-27, D+4): This district is mostly north of L.A., including the cities of Palmdale and Lancaster, as well as some of the northern San Fernando Valley area of L.A. Mike Garcia has won races against flawed Democrats before, but this time he will face a tougher challenger in Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides. Biden won the district with 55% in 2020.
  
  
• Michelle Steel (R) (CA-45, D+2): CA-45 has a sizeable Vietnamese population, but that does not include Michelle Steel, who is Korean-American. The Democrat, Derek Tran, IS a Vietnamese-American. Biden barely carried the district in 2020 with 52%. Orange County used to be very Republican but it has become much less so in recent years.
  
  
• Young Kim (R) (CA-40, R+2): The incumbent is favored here over challenger Joe Kerr unless Biden improves his 2020 49.9% percentage. Democrats are not optimistic about Kerr's chances.
  
  
• Open (CA-47, D+3): In contrast to CA-40, Democrats are more optimistic, even though this is the open seat Katie Porter left behind when she ran for the Senate. The Republican, Scott Baugh, lost to Porter in 2022, but now he is up against state Sen. Dave Min, who won a tough primary. How Biden does in Orange County could determine all the Orange County seats.
  
  
• Mike Levin (D) (CA-49, D+3): The Republican, Matt Gunderson, was not the NRCC favorite but he came in second so he gets to oppose Levin. Gunderson is not going to get much help from the GOP, so he is on his own. Still, it is a swing district and the San Diego area is more Republican than most big cities. Lots of money and military there.
  

I-95

The East Coast's answer to the I-5 is the I-95. It runs 1,900 miles from the Canadian border in Maine to Miami. However, the I-95 has only six competitive districts, four of them currently represented by Democrats and two currently represented by Republicans. Again, let's travel south from Canada.

• Jared Golden (D) (ME-02, R+6): This is the largest district east of the Mississippi. Democrat Jared Golden, a former Marine, represents an R+6 district Trump won by 7 points. Marines are tough, though. He is one of the most blue doggish members of the House. He has to be in this district. Golden will face state Rep. Austin Theriault. Golden's fate could well be linked to Biden's here.
  
  
• Chris Pappas (D) (NH-01, EVEN): This district occupies the eastern third of the state and is partly in the Boston media market. Chris Pappas is an inoffensive congressman who stays out of the news and tends to his constituents. The primaries are Sept. 10, which will make it harder for the Republican to become known district wide. There are half a dozen Republicans running.
  
  
• Thomas Kean Jr. (R) (NJ-07, R+1): Tom Kean Jr.'s father was governor for many years in the 1980s. Junior is starting out in Congress. This is a suburban district north of Trenton. Kean has proven tough to defeat, so Working Families Alliance director Sue Altman has her work cut out for her, despite the nearly even balance of the district.
  
  
• Open (VA-07, D+1): The current incumbent, Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), is not running for reelection because she is planning to run for governor in 2025. The winner of the Democratic primary is Eugene Vindman. You might remember his twin brother, Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman (ret.), whose testimony before Congress led to Donald Trump's first impeachment. Vindman will face veteran and attorney Derek Anderson. Biden got 52% of the vote in 2020 but Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) got 52% in his 2021 gubernational run. It could be a real barnburner.
  
  
• Don Davis (D) (NC-01, D+2): When Republicans regerrymandered the map this year, they forced out two Democrats and made Davis' life much worse. The district is east of Raleigh. Davis is considered to be one of the most vulnerable Democrats. The Republican is retired Army colonel and defense contractor Laurie Buckhout.
  
  
• Maria Salazar (R) (FL-27, EVEN): The district is heavily Latino. Salazar, a former television anchor on Telemundo, is Cuban-American. She got 57% of the vote last time, even though the district is EVEN. Her opponent, Democrat Annette Taddeo, a former state senator, is also a Latina, from Colombia. As a well-known TV personality and incumbent, Salazar has the edge here, despite the PVI.
  

These aren't the only competitive House races, but these do cover quite a few of them. (V)