Dem
51
GOP
49
Donald Trump still hasn't named his running mate and there has been plenty of speculation about who he might pick. Trump has never gotten more than the 46.8% of the popular vote he got in 2020. A good running mate might add a couple of points to that. That could be the difference between winning and losing. Politico has a different take on the choice than everyone else. It looks at the categories of voters that Trump needs and which possible candidates might help there. Of course, Trump often flies by the seat of his pants and seems to prize loyalty above all else, but his advisers are much more rational and have no doubt also looked at it through the prism of how to win.
The Suburbs: Biden rolled up huge margins among affluent, well-educated suburban voters. While Biden's performance in the debate may have saddened some of them, Donald Trump's stream of lies dwarfed the Mighty Mississippi and college-educated voters know this. He could use some help here. Nikki Haley was a suburban state legislator before becoming governor of South Carolina. She did well in the suburbs in the primaries. For example, she crushed Trump in the collar counties surrounding Philadelphia in the all-important swing state of Pennsylvania. Her main problem is that she refused to kiss his... ring. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) has a good profile for the increasingly diverse suburbs. He has shown this not only in Florida but during his 2016 run, also in the suburbs around Atlanta, Chicago, and Nashville. However, he is known to be lazy and a poor campaigner, not to mention a Florida resident, which would force him to move out of state. That stunt could be challenged in the courts. Gov Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) also has done well in the suburbs. But his failure to capture the Virginia legislature in 2023 works against him. Also, he is not all that Trumpy. Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) is bland enough that nobody really hates him and suburban voters in most of the country would probably see him as presidential. However, he signed a very restrictive abortion ban, which could hurt among suburban women. Army veteran Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) is very conservative and might play well in conservative suburbs.
Women: Women tend to vote Democratic and the E. Jean Carroll case could hurt Trump with women. Also, his picking three Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade isn't going to help. Maybe picking a woman might help a little. There's Nikki Haley again, college-president enemy Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and dog-killer Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD). The latter two are more restrictive on abortion than Trump himself. That is not a winning position in the suburbs. Count on an all-male ticket.
Double Haters: One-fifth of the electorate hates both Trump and Biden. They tend to be young independents. They blame Biden for inflation and Trump for his temperament. The only person who might do well here is Haley, but Trump doesn't like her. Still, this is a large enough chunk of the electorate that the candidate who comes over as least bad could win here.
Nonwhite Voters: Polls suggest Biden is slipping with both Black men and Latino men. On the other hand, if his running mate is Kamala Harris, that could help somewhat. Trump could try to neutralize this by picking a person of color. Names that come up are Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), and Ben Carson. The biggest problem is that none of them have a history of winning Black votes. Scott, for example, never gets a majority in the state's nine majority-Black counties. In fact, he's never come close. Bad start. Donalds is a congressman nobody has ever heard of. People once knew who Carson was, but have long forgotten. Probably not one person in a hundred could name the job he once had in the Trump administration. Rubio is a possibility, except that Cuban-Americans don't play a role in any of the swing states.
Burn-it-down voters: The burn-it-down voters believe the wildest conspiracy theories. They want radical change, although they may not agree what that means. Maybe they will vote for Bobby Jr. But if Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) is on the ticket, they might vote for Trump. Vance hates vaccines, masks, and all COVID restrictions. He is as angry as they are. He could bring them in. Only problem is that he would not play well in the suburbs or with women generally.
Swing states: The election is really about winning six or seven swing states. Vance might help in the Midwest. Scott's state shares a media market with North Carolina and Georgia. But veeps don't always even win their own states. John Edwards didn't pull in North Carolina for John Kerry in 2004. Paul Ryan didn't help win Wisconsin for Mitt Romney in 2012. And none of the veepables is actually from a swing state.
Will Trump do this analysis? We doubt it. He just picks the guy who is most loyal to him. If we were forced to guess now, we'd guess he would look in the mirror and say: "Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the Trumpiest of them all?" And the mirror would display "J.D. Vance" in 72-point boldface type. (V)