Dem
51
GOP
49
If you want to skip wild speculation and get back to generic speculation, skip this item. Sonia Sotomayor's 70th birthday was June 25, 2024. A belated Happy Birthday to her. No doubt she plans to live forever, just like Ruth Bader Ginsburg did. Ginsburg wasn't healthy—she had cancer multiple times—but neither is Sotomayor. She has a serious case of Type I diabetes. However, if she has learned anything from The Ginsburg Story, she might consider resigning this month now that the Supreme Court session is through and for the next 6 months, the Democrats control the White House and Senate and could get a successor confirmed. If The Ginsburg Story doesn't do the job, then how about The Dianne Feinstein Story or The Mitch McConnell Story? If Sotomayor stays on and either Donald Trump wins or the Republicans capture the Senate, the chance of a liberal being appointed and confirmed in the period 2025-2027 in the event of her incapacitation or death is zero, whereas it is 100% if she retires now.
If Sotomayor were to retire now (and we don't expect her to do it, since all prominent public officials plan on living forever), that would open a potential new option for Joe Biden. One of the problems that he faces is that some voters are afraid he will die in office and they don't like the idea of Kamala Harris as the spare tire. If Sotomayor retires, Biden could appoint Harris to the Supreme Court, which would give him some street cred with Black voters. That would be his second appointment of a Black woman to the Court and result in fully one-third of the justices being Black.
Of course, Harris would have to accept the deal, but a guaranteed powerful position for life might look better than 50-50 odds at another four years as veep and then a tough primary race in 2028 against Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer, a race that she would probably lose. Officially, the White House has said Sotomayor's retirement is a "personal decision." English translation: It is not a personal decision. The future of democracy in the country could depend on your doing it right now.
If Sotomayor hung up her robe and decided to become a professor of constitutional law at her alma mater, Yale, or some other top law school and Biden continued his run for president, he could pick a more popular veep. He would almost have to pick a woman, but it could be a white one, if he appoints Harris to the Supreme Court. Biden could tell Black women: "I put not one, but two Black women on a court that seems to be running the country." The obvious choice for veep is Gretchen Whitmer, given her sterling track record of implementing nearly the entire Democratic agenda in her state and also guaranteeing that the ticket would carry Michigan and probably Wisconsin. Win or lose, it would also tee up Whitmer as a very strong 2028 candidate.
It would also ease the minds of some voters who think Biden won't hit Jan. 20, 2029, alive and think a vote for Biden is really a vote for Harris, who is less popular than Biden. Whitmer doesn't turn off nearly as many voters as Harris does (sadly, at least in part, because she is white). For Harris, being on the Supreme Court is clearly a promotion from being veep. She has a J.D. from the University of California at San Francisco and was California AG, so she is clearly as qualified as some of the current justices, and a lot less corrupt. If she is realistic, this might seem like a better deal than a small shot at winning the 2028 Democratic nomination and also winning the White House after that. (V)