Dem
51
GOP
49
French President Emmanuel Macron was shocked by the results of the European Parliament elections, so he called for national elections for the National Assembly, the lower chamber of the French parliament. Bad move. Early results show that Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally got 34% of the vote, the leftist parties got 29%, and Macron's Together Alliance got 22%. Small parties got the rest.
This was just the first round of voting. The system is somewhat complicated. Members of the 577-seat National Assembly are elected by district. If no candidate gets 50% outright or at least 25% of registered voters in the first round, there will be a second round next Sunday. Any candidate who gets at least 12.5% of registered voters in the first round advances to the second round. Sometimes if a National Rally candidate, a socialist, and a centrist candidate all get above 12.5%, either the socialist or the centrist will drop out in order to make sure the National Rally candidate does not win the district.
It is possible that the National Rally gets a majority next week, which would mean that Le Pen's protégé, the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, would become prime minister. However, if the National Rally fails to get 289 seats, Bardella has said he will refuse to become prime minister because he doesn't want to become "the president's assistant." In that case, some kind of coalition would be necessary. Le Pen and Bardella want to halt immigration, stop globalization, and try to repeal multiculturalism. They also want closer ties with Russia. Bardella has said that if he becomes prime minister, he will block the delivery of certain French weapons to Ukraine. He would certainly get along better with Donald Trump than with Joe Biden.
The upper chamber consists of 348 senators who are elected by an electoral college of 165,000 local officials for a 6-year term, with half of the Senate up every 3 years. The Senate is controlled by conservatives because small villages are over-represented, compared to big cities. Sound familiar? However, the Senate doesn't have a lot of real power. When there is a dispute between the chambers, the Assembly wins.
No matter what, Macron would still remain as president until 2027, but he wouldn't be able to get any laws passed or block laws he doesn't like. The situation would be similar to a Democratic president dealing with a Republican Congress, except the French president doesn't have the power to veto laws. This mixed control is called "cohabitation" in France. It has happened three times, most recently 1997-2002.
Nevertheless, the French president does have some hard power. He has some control of foreign policy, European affairs, and is the commander in chief. He can also issue government ordinances (like XOs) but the National Assembly can override him. The leftist coalition has said that if it wins, it will immediately recognize a Palestinian state.
None of these outcomes is good for Macron's good friend, Joe Biden. A far-left National Assembly is better for Biden than a far-right one. Biden's hope has to be that no party gets a majority in the second round and the socialists and Macron form a center-left coalition. (V)