Jan.31

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Looking Forward to 2024, Part II: Our Predictions

As we explained yesterday, we are rebooting our approach to predictions, and to the scoring thereof. We've appointed a panel of judges, and developed a scoring system that distinguishes, with some precision, "risky" predictions from "not so risky" predictions. If our explanation yesterday was a bit too complicated, well, it's enough to know that if a prediction is eligible for a small number of bonus points, that means the panel didn't think it was all that bold a prediction. On the other hand, if it's eligible for big-time bonus points, that meant the panel thought, collectively, that it's kind of a longshot.

And with that review out of the way, here are our predictions for 2024:

1. Fani Willis will not have to testify in Nathan Wade's divorce case. (Potential Bonus Points: 100)
   
   
2. The House Homeland Security Committee will decide that DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas should be impeached. (Potential Bonus Points: 100)
   
   
3. Cori Bush will get in trouble for spending too much on security. (Potential Bonus Points: 100)
   
   
4. Joe Manchin will expend much oxygen whining about electric-vehicle chargers. (Potential Bonus Points: 100)

Pretty impressive, eh? We left the pundits in the dust, especially that loser Nostradamus. That's why we write a politics-focused blog, while he's dead.

Oh, wait. You're not buying that we predicted all these things in advance? Not very trusting, are you? Very well, here's our real predictions list:

1. Donald Trump will have some sort of major health crisis that he will be unable to keep out of the headlines. (Potential Bonus Points: 49)
   
   
2. Trump's Washington criminal trial will be concluded, with conviction on at least one count, before Election Day. (Potential Bonus Points: 46)
   
   
3. There will be no further presidential debates this year. (Potential Bonus Points: 24)
   
   
4. Mike Johnson will lose the speakership before the year is out. (Potential Bonus Points: 39)
   
   
5. Roughly half of the Biden 17 will lose their seats in November. (Potential Bonus Points: 31)
   
   
6. "George Santos" will spend time in prison in 2024, but Steve Bannon will not. (Potential Bonus Points: 56)
   
   
7. There will be a major scandal that involves both AI and the 2024 election. (Potential Bonus Points: 42)
   
   
8. The Dow Jones Industrial Index, currently at 38,467.31, will close above 42,000 on Election Day. (Potential Bonus Points: 43)
   
   
9. Volodymyr Zelenskyy will win the Nobel Peace Prize. (Potential Bonus Points: 60)
   
   
10. The Israeli government, perhaps against its will, will be compelled to reach a ceasefire with Hamas. (Potential Bonus Points: 36)

So, when all 10 of our predictions hit the bullseye, we'll earn 1,426 points.

Reader predictions commence next week. If you haven't weighed in already, and you want to, the mailbox is still open at comments@electoral-vote.com. Please use subject line "Predictions." (Z)