Jan.31

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Dem 51

   

GOP 49

About Generalissimo Donaldo

While we accept that a President Donald Trump v2.0 could do enormous damage to the fabric of American democracy, we have consistently pooh-poohed the notion that he could turn himself into a dictator, brushing aside the law, and refusing to leave office when his hypothetical term came to an end on Jan. 20, 2029. He just doesn't have the brains, or the spine, or the force of will for it. Yes, he tends to surround himself with people who do have some of those things, but history is not replete with examples of people who achieved dictatorial power without being a major player in the machinations that got them there.

This week, Turkish journalist Asli Aydintasbas wrote a piece for Politico in which she agrees with us, albeit for different reasons. Noting that she knows what it looks like when a dictator takes over, Aydintasbas asserts that Trump just won't have enough time to pull it off, because it takes well more than 4 years.

Aydintasbas' argument covers three things:

1. Mainstream Media: Without any real effort on his own part, Trump already has a friendly media establishment to propagandize for him, with Fox taking the lead. The problem is all the non-right-wing media, which most certainly would not go gentle into that good night, and would become the rallying point of the resistance. It is possible to stamp out unfriendly media (see Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, etc.) but it takes a long time, particularly in an age where it's entirely plausible to publish from places well beyond the United States' borders.
   
   
2. The Judiciary: This, in Aydintasbas' view, is the biggest obstacle to a Trump-led dictatorship. It is essential for an absolutist government that the courts be a loyal ally in maintaining the party line (see Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Poland, etc.). But the U.S. system of government gives courts a lot of independence and a lot of power, along with very long tenures for judges. Only about a quarter of the federal judges currently sitting are Trump appointees, and even then, many of his appointees have not been willing to fall in line behind him. In fact, most of them have not. Turning the federal judiciary into the kind of institution it would need to be would take multiple generations of Trumps.
   
   
3. Cities, Mayors, Governors: When a country takes a dictatorial turn, cities tend to be at the center of the resistance because they are disproportionately young, educated, and well off (and thus not disaffected). This would be particularly true in modern-day America, since there are many very large, very well supplied, very blue cities and states. Even a totally loyal military (dubious) that managed to double the size of its ranks (also dubious) would struggle to put down the resistance in, say, Los Angeles, much less the entire state of California. And feel free to replace that with New York City/New York, or Chicago/Illinois, or Philadelphia/Pennsylvania or Baltimore/Maryland.

Aydintasbas' conclusion, which is worth conveying in her own words, is this:

Any attempt at state capture by Trump will face a pushback from media, bureaucracy, major cities and the judiciary.

That resistance is necessary and will emerge at every level of civic life. It will also damage and tear up America in ways that are unimaginable today. It is easier to stop Trump now than to wait until after he becomes president again, when polarization and the push-and-pull between Trump and his opposition will consume the nation's energy and cripple state resources. It will drain every bit of energy this country has.

So my message to America is, do not panic—but organize. The most successful method of fighting creeping authoritarianism is alliance building and effective opposition—preferably before the election. After the election, it will be more costly to stop it.

Even in an imperfect democracy like Turkey, it took more than a decade to dismantle the rule of law. Donald Trump might try, but he will find that it takes a long time to become dictator.

Those readers who are nervous about what the future holds might wish to read the entire piece, as opposed to just our summary. (Z)