Dem
51
GOP
49
House Democrats have a secret weapon they are planning to use in many House races: Donald Trump. They are going to accuse every House candidate of being a Trump supporter and enabler. In some districts this won't work, but in some it is expected to work extremely well—in particular, in New York State, where there are five districts Joe Biden carried in 2020 and which are now represented by first-term Republicans. These are probably the Democrats' top targets in the entire House.
The chairman of the New York Democratic Party, Jay Jacobs, said: "Trump was a motivator for the Democratic vote when he was a lot closer to normal than he is now. As he's gotten crazier, I think this will sound the alarm bells for Democrats, Republicans, and independents across the country." However, it is not a given that this will work. A recent Siena College poll of New York put Biden only 9 points ahead of Trump. Among Latinos, Trump is actually leading. These dynamics will be on display (or not) in the Feb. 13 special election to replace "George Santos."
Specifically, in 2017, Trump signed a tax cut bill that limited the deduction for state income tax plus property tax to $10,000. In high-tax New York, this provision is exceedingly unpopular. This is going to be a huge issue and even Republican representatives who weren't in Congress when it passed are going to be tarred with guilt by association, as in: "My opponent's party voted to slash your tax deduction and I want to restore it."
Trump is probably going to pressure all of the vulnerable Republicans to endorse him or else. That will make it even easier for Democrats to hang him around House Republicans like a millstone.
In New York especially, Trump is merely millstone #1. They also have millstone #2: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who is (currently) Trumpier than Trump. Democrats are going to use her as the poster girl for "All Republicans are totally crazy." As a consequence of this line of attack, neither Stefanik nor Trump will be able to campaign for the five endangered Republicans. That would only prove the Democrats' point.
The endangered Republicans will try to talk about crime or the economy or anything except Trump, but that is unlikely to work with the Democrats harping on it continuously. How will that play out? We got a demo in California recently when Senate candidate Steve Garvey refused to say whether he would vote for Trump a third time. Democrats jumped all over him, saying even Republicans can't stand Trump. This demonstrates the problems Republicans have running in blue states and districts. And the problem is only going to get worse. Remember, 17 House Republicans are in blue districts that Biden won in 2020. (V)