Dem
51
GOP
49
The next Republican contest is the Nevada primary on Feb. 6. The next one after that is the Nevada caucuses on Feb. 8. Huh? We're going to make a prediction here. Write it down. Nikki Haley will win the Nevada primary and Donald Trump will win the Nevada caucuses.
You might be wondering: What's going on here? We don't blame you. Here is the story.
For decades, Nevada held party-run caucuses. However, in 2020, the Nevada Democratic Party botched the caucus as badly as the Iowa Democratic Party botched ITS caucus. The Nevada legislature then threw up its hands in disgust and passed a law requiring all parties to have state-run primaries. So the primary on Feb. 6 is required by state law. Nevada holds mail-in elections, like Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and a few other states. Republicans don't trust mail-in elections, so they decided to run their own caucuses. Parties are free to run caucuses whenever and wherever they want to since they pay the full costs of them. But the RNC decided to allocate all of Nevada's 26 delegates at the caucuses and none at the primary. It further decreed that any candidate who filed for the primary would be banned from the caucuses.
Undaunted, Nikki Haley filed to run in the primary, along with Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC). Neither of the latter two are still in the race. This is why the smart money (us included) is betting on Haley winning the primary. She is the only candidate still running whose name will be on the ballot. Meanwhile, all the other candidates opted for the caucuses. Donald Trump is the only candidate still running who will be on the ballot at the caucuses. The smart money (again including us) is betting that Trump will win the caucuses. The big difference is that while the headlines on Feb. 7 will read: "Haley wins the Nevada primary," she won't get any delegates. In contrast, the headlines on Feb. 9 will read: "Trump wins the Nevada caucuses" and he will pick up 26 delegates.
So the whole exercise is semi-pointless. No one will campaign in Nevada since the outcome is known already. This is why all the attention is now on South Carolina, which will hold a state primary on Sat. Feb. 24, with 50 delegates at stake. Now you know what is going on. (V)