Dem
51
GOP
49
Democrats are worriers. There's always something to worry about, so here we go again. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has now announced that he has enough signatures to get on the New Hampshire ballot as an independent. In a close race, it is possible he could pull in enough low-information Democrats who somehow assume that he is more-or-less like Dad—which he is definitely not—and vote for him. Early polling is what gets the Democrats' worry juices flowing, but historically, third-party candidates rarely do anywhere near as well as early polling shows. Yes, Ross Perot did well in 1992, but he was a billionaire who spent a lot of his own money on his campaign. He was also an oddly captivating personality. Kennedy is neither a billionaire nor captivating. Also, the thing he is most famous for—opposing vaccinations—is something that will appeal to more Republicans than Democrats.
New Hampshire is a small state and you don't need a lot of signatures to get on the ballot (only 3,000). Arizona, Michigan, and Georgia are much bigger states and many more signatures are needed. Kennedy has perhaps created a workaround that might help, but that is far from sure. In some states, it is easier for a new political party to get on the ballot than an independent candidate, so Kennedy has created a new party, called "We the People," and may succeed in getting on the ballot in California, Delaware, Hawaii, Mississippi, and North Carolina. Of these, only North Carolina is a swing state. But Kennedy is also trying in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. With enough money (from rich Republicans), he might succeed, but if he can't get on the ballot in a number of the bigger swing states, his candidacy will fizzle out. One Democratic campaign operative said: "Who cares that he is polling at 10-12 percent nationally right now? It is a mirage; it only matters if he gets on the ballot in the five states that will determine the election."
Possibly a bigger threat is the No Labels group, backed by millions of dollars from big Republican donors like Clarence Thomas' best friend, Harlan Crow. On the other hand, while No Labels has enough money to pay thousands of people to circulate petitions, what it doesn't have yet is a candidate. Getting on the ballot in a lot of states but running some county commissioner no one has ever heard of is not going to work. If Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) were to sign up, No Labels could be a threat, but so far Manchin hasn't given any serious indication that he wants to be a spoiler and elect Donald Trump. If Larry Hogan were to sign up, which is also far from clear, he would probably cost Trump more votes than he would Biden.
Cornel West is probably not a threat to anyone. He doesn't have any money and the people who might vote for him really hate Trump and in the end would probably decide stopping Trump is more important than making a statement. Jill Stein is running on the Green Party ticket again. In 2020, the Green Party candidate, Howie Hawkins, got 0.26% of the total vote and wasn't much of a threat. Stein is better known than Hawkins was, but her likely supporters also know that the dangers of a Trump presidency are so great that most likely in the end, they will hold their collective noses and very grudgingly vote for Biden, just to stop Trump. In 2016, Stein got 1.07% of the vote, less than a third of what the Libertarian Party candidate, Gary Johnson, got. We think that was her high-water mark and in this year's competitive election, where democracy itself is at stake, her supporters are also going to be so afraid of the possibility that 2024 is the last presidential election ever, that they will screw their courage to the sticking place, put clothespins on their noses, vote for Biden, and then puke as soon as they have exited the polling station. (V)