Dem
51
GOP
49
The liberal activist organization MoveOn is planning to spend $32 million to reelect Joe Biden and a Democratic Congress. This is the largest push in the organization's history. The group thinks it can raise that much money.
The organization is going to focus like a laser on young, marginal voters in swing states and swing House districts. It is going to aim at holding Senate seats in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, plus holding or winning about two dozen House seats. These undoubtedly will include most of the Biden 17 seats and a few districts that Trump narrowly won in 2020 or new districts formed after the 2020 redistricting. Here is a map with MoveOn's priorities.
We largely agree that these are good choices if the goal is a Democratic trifecta. Our only disagreement is that we don't think defending Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) is a priority. He has been elected lieutenant governor once, governor once, and senator twice. That's four statewide wins. Yes, Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) won in 2021 by 1.9%, but that was against a somewhat sleazy retread. Youngkin got 1.66 million votes in his gubernatorial win, whereas Kaine got 1.91 million votes for the Senate in 2018. In 2022, Democrats won both chambers of the Virginia state legislature. Virginia isn't really a swing state anymore. It is a blue state where a strong Republican can sometimes (barely) beat a weak Democrat in an odd-numbered year. Kaine is also a good fundraiser. No reason for panic. We think money MoveOn is going to spend for Kaine would be better spent in Montana or Ohio.
The arguments that MoveOn is going to make to young voters will revolve around how the Republicans at every level are trying to ban abortion and end democracy. The group has some experience in political advocacy. In 2020, it ran 6,700 phone-banking shifts and in 2022 contacted 42 million voters. The goal is to contact 11 million young (marginal) voters across the target states and districts. (V)