Dem
51
GOP
49
Consider the following statements:
There's a word for this. We're sure it begins with "hypo." Hypochondriac? No. Hypothesis? No. Hypoxia? No. Hypodermic needle? No. Hypothalamus? No. Hypopotamus? No. Hypocrite? Yes, that's it! We knew it was in there somewhere. House Republicans want to make sure Mayorkas can't defend the border so they can impeach him for not defending the border. This kind of makes Johnson the poster child for operating in bad faith.
Republicans have been screaming about lax border enforcement for years. Now they have an actual chance to beef up enforcement and they are preemptively announcing that they are not even going to consider a bill that would do what they claim they badly want to do.
How come? It's all about politics. Donald Trump wants to run on a campaign of: "The border is out of control and only I can fix it." What he absolutely does not want, no way, no matter what, is that the problem gets fixed in a bipartisan way under Joe Biden. That would take away his strongest policy argument. He will fight tooth and nail to avoid fixing the border now, even though that is his supporters' highest priority. In reality, he doesn't give a hoot about what actually happens at the border. What he cares about enormously is that Joe Biden doesn't get the credit for fixing the problem. So he has ordered all his troops to kill the bill Sens. James Lankford (R-OK) and Chris Murphy (D-CT) are hashing out in the Senate. He sees now that he doesn't control enough senators to kill the bill in the Senate, especially when Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) wants it passed, so he is focusing on getting the bill killed in the House.
However, this strategy comes with some real risks. Right now, all of the above is inside baseball. Most Americans don't have a clue what is going on with respect to the border. What happens after the Democrats launch a $20 million ad campaign saying they desperately wanted to beef up border security but Donald Trump single-handedly blocked their efforts because he wants to use the border as a campaign issue? How will people react to hearing that 3 million more immigrants will get into the country in 2024 because Trump didn't want better enforcement to begin on Joe Biden's watch? This could be a potent issue for the Democrats. How many of Trump's supporters are going to say: "It is better to let another 3 million people get into the country than do something now and have Biden get credit for it?" They tend to look for results, not the politics of it. The ads could be brutal.
Biden has been in politics for a while. He understands how it works, so he is amping up the pressure. He has unambiguously announced that he will shut down the border if the Senate bill passes both chambers and comes to his desk. While Trump's hard-core supporters will oppose anything Biden says or does, there are surely some Republicans who would be happy to shut down the border and don't care who gets credit for it. In any event, it puts Johnson in an awkward situation. The Senate will probably pass a bill this week to beef up border security by providing billions of dollars to hire more Border Patrol officers and give them whatever equipment they need. Biden has said he will sign it in a heartbeat and shut down the border. And Johnson is required by Trump to refuse to even bring it up for a vote—because it would pass easily.
If Biden wants to play hardball, he could. He could announce a formal Oval Office speech to the country, and say something like this:
My fellow Americans. One of our most pressing problems is stopping the flow of immigrants on our southern border. Fortunately, the Senate has just passed a bill appropriating X billion dollars to hire thousands of new Border Patrol agents and give them the weapons, vehicles, helicopters, drones, sensors, and miles of razor wire they need to stop the flow. If the House passes the Senate bill, I will sign it within 10 minutes of it arriving on my desk. Unfortunately, House Speaker Mike Johnson refuses to even hold a vote on the Senate bill because Donald Trump has ordered him not to. Trump doesn't want to seal the border because he wants to use the border as a campaign issue. I want to seal the border now, not play politics with it. I urge you to contact Speaker Johnson and also your own representative by going to www.house.gov and telling them you want a vote on the Senate bill. Together, with your help, we can seal the border. Thank you.
Will Biden do this? Probably not, but it would put immense pressure on Johnson if his members began panicking and demanding he bring the bill up for a vote. Also, this would force Trump to explain why he is against a vote to give the Border Patrol billions of dollars to hire and equip new agents. We doubt he could do a convincing job of it.
Do Democrats have a way to get a bill that passes the Senate through the House if Johnson refuses to budge? Maybe, if Democrats can line up a handful of retiring Republicans who don't care about Trump but would like their legacy to be a tough new border-control bill. Then they could try to pass a discharge petition and force the bill out of committee when it gets there. Johnson would be beyond furious if three or four Republicans joined with the Democrats to force a floor vote and then voted for it. But for Republicans who are retiring, there isn't a lot Johnson could do to punish them. Yes, he could strip them of their committee assignments, but since the House won't be passing any other bills this year, committee slots don't mean much. Is this approach likely? We don't think so, but it is theoretically possible.
What the Democrats can also do is start running targeted ads now and blame the Republicans for refusing to fix the border. That could put pressure on Johnson as members of his caucus, especially the Biden 17, start hearing from constituents who want something done now and are hearing that he is blocking that something. Would a pressure campaign work? It is possible. (V)