Dem
51
GOP
49
CBS News has published an interesting article on the New Hampshire exit polls. First, let's look at how strongly the Trump voters support Trump:
What is clear here is that the overwhelming number of Trump voters are locked in. He could be living in Federal Prison Camp, Pensacola, in November and they would still vote for him. But 16% might not. And 3% only voted for him because they didn't like Haley. We don't know why. Maybe they don't like women, brown people, or children of recent immigrants. If there happened to be a white man other than Trump on the ballot, would they vote for him? We don't know. We do know that if 3% of Trump voters vote for Biden, that would make a huge difference, as eight states were decided by 3 points or less last time.
Another question got to the heart of Trump's appeal. It was: "How do you feel about the country today?" Here are the results:
Wow. A full 77% are dissatisfied or angry. As we noted yesterday, Trump voters are angry. They may not even know why or what they are angry at, but they are angry. Biden seems like more of the same, so they vote for Trump.
Now here is a biggie: "Is Trump fit to be president if convicted of a crime?":
Whoa. A full 47% say he would not be fit to be president if convicted of a crime. If he sees this poll, he is going to order his lawyers to pull out all stops trying to get all his trials delayed. If the D.C. Court of Appeals and the Supreme Court rule quickly on immunity and the trial about Jan. 6 moves forward quickly, there is a realistic chance Trump will be convicted by November and maybe even that the appeals will have run out. We don't believe for a second that 47% of Republicans will dump him if he is convicted, but if 4.7% of Republicans either vote for Biden, vote for a third party, or sit out the election, that could do Trump in.
A slightly different way of slicing the New Hampshire voters is to ask the same question of the people who voted for Trump on Tuesday. In other words, exclude the Haley voters. Here is that result:
Even among people who voted for Trump, 11% consider a conviction disqualifying. Among Haley voters, 85% consider a conviction disqualifying. That explains the differences between the last two charts.
The poll has a number of other interesting findings. Among Trump voters, 83% think Trump won in 2020, 77% think immigration is by far the biggest issue, and 76% want a national ban on abortion. Among Haley voters, 86% want a candidate with the right temperament, 66% think foreign policy is the most important issue, and 55% oppose a national abortion ban. Now remember, many of the Haley voters are independents, but they also get to vote in November. (V)