Dem
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GOP
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One of the most important Senate races is in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is facing reelection in a state that has become much redder than it was last time he ran, in 2018. But before Republicans can try to knock off Brown, they have to knock off each other. Three serious Republicans are running for the GOP nomination: Secretary of State Frank LaRose, wealthy car dealer Bernie Moreno, and state Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians, and who really likes the U.S. elections schedule, since his Octobers and Novembers are ALWAYS wide open.
On Monday, the three of them participated in a debate televised on WJW Fox 8 in Cleveland. They agree on some things. For example, Ohioans passed a pro-abortion amendment last fall. None of them like it because, well, it allows abortions and they don't want to allow abortions. Also, none of them had a bad word to say about Donald Trump, who has already endorsed Moreno.
Still, to convince voters to pick him and not the others, each candidate needs to differ from the others in some ways. One point of contention is the border. Dolan attacked Moreno for wanting to militarize the federal government and deport children. LaRose, a former Green Beret, also wants the military to defend the border. Dolan said that was irresponsible. LaRose also wants to deport anyone who entered the country illegally during Biden's presidency. People who entered illegally during Trump's presidency are home free.
Moreno attacked LaRose and Dolan for being career politicians. He also said that the indictments against Trump are political and that he would support Trump even if he is convicted. He has conveniently forgotten that he once called the Capitol rioters "morons" and "criminals" but now calls them "political prisoners." Moreno also pointed at Dolan and told viewers: "If you want Liz Cheney to represent you in the United States Senate from Ohio, here's your choice because that's where his position comes from." No wonder Trump has endorsed Moreno.
LaRose attempted to position himself as a middle-class candidate in a fight with two multimillionaires who have no idea what life is like for ordinary people. Both Moreno and Dolan have loaned their campaigns millions of dollars. LaRose said he lives in the terrible Biden economy, like most Ohioans, and knows how they are suffering.
As of the end of Q3 2023, Dolan had $6.7 million cash on hand, Moreno had $5.0 million, and LaRose had a bit less than $1 million. LaRose is going to need some big-time backers to match the two self-funding millionaires. As to polling, there have been 11 polls since last May. LaRose has led in eight of them, probably because, as a statewide elected official, he is better known than the others. However, in three of the four most recent polls, Moreno has taken the lead. Dolan has never led in any poll, but the candidates are close in all of them. In a Dec. poll from McLaughlin, for example, Moreno was at 22%, LaRose was at 18%, and Dolan was at 16%. So basically, anything can happen. A lot depends on: (1) how much Trump inserts himself into the race and (2) how much money the two millionaires toss into their campaigns. Our guess is that LaRose is the strongest candidate against Brown and Moreno is the weakest. (V)