Dem
51
GOP
49
As the 2024 election cycle gets underway, there are some quirky things going on in California. Some of them are just a product of American politics in general; others are specific to California because of its size, its demographics and its jungle primary.
To start, there was a candidates' debate last night, with the leading U.S. Senate candidates on stage. In other words, invites were issued to Reps. Adam Schiff (D), Katie Porter (D) and Barbara Lee (D), and to former Los Angeles Dodger Steve Garvey. And it was an excellent demonstration of why Republicans can't win statewide office in California.
Garvey has three significant problems. The first is that he may be a veteran baseball player, but he's a rookie politician. Not good when you're on stage with three battle-tested pros. The second is that when there are three Democrats and one Republican on stage, you can guess who is going to have a giant target on their back. The third is that California Republicans are pretty MAGA, while California independents are definitely not. This forces Garvey to avoid taking positions on... anything.
The zinger of the night served to illustrate all three of these problems. Porter asked Garvey if he would vote for Donald Trump in 2024; a question Garvey most certainly does not want to answer, because he'll either anger the MAGA crowd or the independents. So, he said he would wait until Election Day: "At that time, I will make my choice." Porter replied with an obviously pre-scripted line (that nonetheless landed with devastating effect): "What they say is true: Once a Dodger, always a Dodger."
Similarly, Garvey is excellent at identifying issues of interest to Californians but, like Trump, is unwilling to share his alleged plans for addressing those issues. When the discussion turned to homelessness, Garvey said that he's gotten to know many homeless people, and that he's "touched them and listened to them." That's... not the best phrasing. Lee, who has spent time unhoused, found the comment patronizing. Schiff, for his part, said: "This will be my one and only baseball analogy for the evening: Mr. Garvey, that was a total swing and a miss—that was a total whiff of an answer." In short, all three Democrats let Garvey have it with both barrels.
That said, the various players involved here have very different rooting interests. As we pointed out yesterday, Porter is rooting for Donald Trump to dominate the primaries, in hopes of keeping Republican voters home when it's time for Californians to vote. The more Republicans who take a pass, the fewer votes for Garvey, and the better chance that Porter finishes in the top two and advances to the general.
By contrast, Schiff is rooting for the opposite. He would be delighted if Garvey finished in second place, because then Schiff could put it in cruise control, and begin picking curtains for his Senate office. The DCCC isn't going to say it publicly, but they are on the same page as Schiff. To a greater or lesser extent, there is only so much money available for the 2024 cycle. The more that the Senate race sucks up, the less there is for the House races. And so, if some hundreds of millions of dollars end up expended to decide which Democrat between Schiff and Porter goes to the Senate, then it could mean the loss of several winnable House seats.
The problem of limited resources and tough-but-winnable races also has the DCCC doing something it does not usually do. Since the blue team really, really wants to knock off Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) in his D+5 district (CA-22), the DCCC is already backing a candidate. So, former state legislator Rudy Salas (D) is getting a bunch of financial assistance, while his main Democratic opponent, state Sen. Melissa Hurtado (D) is... well, on her own. Of course, if she wins, things between her and the DCCC will be awkward, to say the least.
And that's this week's political wackiness out of the Golden State. (Z)