Dem
51
GOP
49
They did it again. Congress kicked the can down the road. The government funding crisis has been put off until March. But none of the underlying problems have been solved. In late February, we start all over again with exactly the same situation as now. Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), who served as acting speaker after Kevin McCarthy was canned, thinks this endless kicking is pointless. McHenry said: "There is no point in pushing the votes down the road because the votes are going to be the same. To draw out the calendar doesn't actually help produce political wins, and it's not actually shown to create policy wins. I'm here for policy wins." McHenry wants Johnson to get the best deal he can and then move on.
On another front, the fate of the $106 billion supplemental bill to fund Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan and beef up border security is still hanging by a chad. The Senate is going to pass some kind of bill this week, probably with 60-70 votes. Then what? Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) doesn't have a working majority to get the bill (or any bill) passed with only Republican votes. But if he works with the Democrats, Marjorie Taylor Greene will introduce a motion to vacate the chair—unless someone else beats her to the punch.
Now some Democrats are openly talking about an unthinkable deal: If Johnson puts the Senate bill up for a vote, they will save his hide when MTG introduces the MTV. Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) said: "Our job is not to save Johnson, but I think it would be a mighty pity, if he did the right thing ... for us not to support him. Up to this point, he's been a fairly honest broker." What he means is that although Johnson is more conservative than Kevin McCarthy, he is not a sleazy creep who breaks his promises all the time. In politics, an honest opponent with whom you disagree on policy gets more respect than a bad-faith weasel who says what you want to hear and then double-crosses you.
The deal seems reasonable on paper, but in practice is probably not politically feasible. For one thing, Donald Trump is wildly against any bill unless his buddy, Vladimir Putin, signs off on it. Putin does not want the U.S. to send more weapons and better weapons to Ukraine. Nor is he a big fan of Israel. If Johnson were to bring the Senate bill up, it might pass but Trump would be absolutely livid and furious with him. How long could he last if all 220 Republicans decided to fire him, even if all 213 Democrats supported him? And even if he survived because a couple of Republicans went rogue and voted with the Democrats, what would his life be like if Trump became president?
The mere fact that Democrats are now openly talking about this deal shows how desperate they are. Not only would passing a bill be good policy, but it would also defuse one of Trump's main arguments in the general election: Biden didn't do anything about the border crisis. For that reason alone, Trump will never support any bill relating to the border, even if it gives Republicans everything they want. Trump cannot tolerate a Biden victory on this sensitive matter. It would take the wind out of his sails.
Johnson's position is made worse by the fact that some Republicans really want to help Ukraine and Israel and Republicans who represent districts along the border really want the CBP beefed up because their districts can't handle the flow. Some of them are already running TV ads trying to counter pressure from the right-wing and make it clear they are trying to solve the problem, even if some of their colleagues are not. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), whose district is on the border, said: "I am looking for solutions now, not a year from now." Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) was even more blunt: "How many hundreds of thousands of illegals would you allow in the country just because it might help your chances in the election?" But these two and others are powerless if the speaker refuses to bring a bill to the floor. Supporting a motion to discharge the bill from committee would be suicidal. So what happens next? We sure don't know and Johnson apparently doesn't either. (V)