Dem
51
GOP
49
Tomorrow could seal the Republican nomination, or start a new phase, as New Hampshire holds the first primary. Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are duking it out, given the exit of Ron DeSantis (see above).
Trump's strategy is unusual, to say the least. First, he is picking fights with judges in an attempt to garner publicity and work his supporters into a frenzy. He has done this in two courtrooms. One is where Judge Arthur Engoron is presiding over a bench trial of Trump's business empire that could cost him $370 million or more, and the other is where Judge Lewis Kaplan is presiding over a trial in which a jury could award E. Jean Carroll whatever it wants to. This strategy might work with his hard-core supporters, but probably is counterproductive with marginal supporters. On the other hand, his strategy has always been a base-only strategy. In primaries, that is usually enough. The downside is that Trump might end up owing half a billion dollars by Groundhog Day. He has never been risk-averse and is clearly not starting now. Still, annoying the judge (and in one case, the jury) is not a good legal strategy, but Trump is betting the farm on becoming president and somehow then being able to undo the damage losing the two cases will cause.
Trump's behavior in the courtrooms would have sunk any other politician and probably landed any non-politician in jail for a couple of nights. But his supporters lap it up. They see him as authentic. By dissing judges and the legal system, they see him as someone who hates political correctness, just as they do. They also see it as a legitimate reaction of someone who is being unfairly targeted. For example, Trump whined about Kaplan not suspending the defamation trial so he could attend the funeral of his mother-in-law. In reality, he is not required to be in the courtroom, so nothing in the courtroom prevented him from going to the funeral. Trump's superpower is his ability to rewrite reality in his supporters' minds. The entrance polls at the Iowa caucuses last week showed that a majority of participants think he legitimately won the 2020 election. Most said that they would vote for him in 2024 even if he is a convicted felon.
The other part of his strategy is now directly going after Nikki Haley, who he calls by her maiden name of Nimarata Randhawa. Nikki is her actual middle name and "Haley" is her husband's last name, which she has been using since they got married. The racism here is more dog bullhorn than dog whistle, especially since he generally and quite deliberately mispronounces her first name. Trump also said that she was ineligible to be president because her parents were not U.S. citizens when baby Nimarata was born. Actually, per the Fourteenth Amendment, that doesn't matter since she was born in Bamberg, SC, and her parents' citizenship is irrelevant. The attack on Haley is a follow-up to his regular attacks on Barack HUSSEIN Obama, with emphasis on HUSSEIN.
Haley knows that Republicans like tough candidates and she tries to be tough. How well she stands up to Trump's direct attacks now will probably determine how well she does in New Hampshire tomorrow.
Meanwhile, Haley is not just sitting back and waiting for the inevitable. She spent her 52nd birthday on Saturday barnstorming the state. She told the crowds they could give her a present on Tuesday (tomorrow) "at a polling place near you." Her attacks on Trump have gotten nastier and more direct, but still nowhere near what Chris Christie said in his short campaign. She talks about his age and his love of dictators. She is even talking about his mental fitness, or lack thereof. However, she is not talking about his indictments or the fact that a jury found him guilty of sexual assault and awarded the victim $5 million with more expected this week. Unlike Trump, who favors massive rallies, Haley is still doing retail politics, meeting people in stores and pubs. That's always appreciated in New Hampshire, but with time running out, maybe she should stop kissing babies and start addressing large crowds.
Haley got not one, but TWO boosts yesterday. First was that Ron DeSantis skulked off to Tallahassee with his tail between his legs to face the wrath of Mrs. DeSantis and the Florida state legislature. Second, the biggest and most influential newspaper in New Hampshire, The Union Leader, endorsed Haley. The editorial read: "If you can select a Republican ballot on Tuesday, we urge you to select Nikki Haley as your next president. New Hampshire is ready for a change. America is ready for a change. The world is ready for a change. We want a better option than we have had for the past eight years, and Nikki Haley is that option." Good thing the editors didn't pick DeSantis and then have him drop out 4 hours later.
The Union Leader is not a big fan of Trump. In 2016, the paper's editor, Joe McQuaid, wrote that Donald Trump is "a crude blowhard with no clear political philosophy and no deeper understanding of the important and serious role of President of the United States than one of the goons he lets rough up protesters in his crowds." Yesterday he got that streak of not endorsing Trump to two. If Trump loses this year and runs in 2028, the streak will probably stretch to three.
Will these twin events help Haley? Well, it is now or never for the anti-Trump camp. And remember, in New Hampshire, independents can vote in either party's primary. New Hampshire has a long history of rebuking Iowa and picking the actual winner. Come back Wednesday for more. (V)