Dem
51
GOP
49
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is not having a great week. He turned in an anemic performance in Iowa despite having campaigned heavily there ("I visited all 99 counties!") and despite the fact that the voters in that state are theoretically his target demo. Thereafter, and at around the same time: (1) Nikki Haley announced she would no longer deign to "debate" DeSantis, and (2) DeSantis effectively surrendered in New Hampshire.
As it turns out, there was also another pretty big kick in the teeth for the Governor, brought to our attention by reader M.C. in Chicago. Florida's HD-35 is pretty swingy, having gone for Joe Biden by 5 points (52%-47%) in 2020, but for DeSantis by 13 points (56%-43%) in 2022. Until late last year, the seat was occupied by Republican Fred Hawkins, who won by 10 points (55%-45%) in 2022. Hawkins resigned so he could accept appointment from DeSantis as president of South Florida State College.
The Governor likes loyal and pliable state representatives, so he helped recruit the Republican candidate for the special election to fill the vacant seat. She is Erika Booth, and in addition to being a DeSantis ally, she also ran on a DeSantis-like platform. By that, we mean her main (and really only) talking point was fighting "Joe Biden's Woke Agenda." Booth had a cash advantage in the race, having raised $323,000 to $121,000 for her opponent (though note that the state Democratic committee intervened with its own funds to basically even things out).
The Democrat in the race was Tom Keen. His platform had three major elements: (1) reduce insurance prices, (2) protect abortion access, and (3) Ron DeSantis is a lousy governor. Keen in particular, and Democrats in general, criticized DeSantis for scheduling the special election the day after the Iowa caucuses, which left the residents of HD-35 without representation in the state House for 2 weeks. The ostensible reason that the Governor did that was to avoid a potentially embarrassing loss BEFORE Iowans cast their ballots.
DeSantis might be a terrible campaigner, but his political instincts are pretty good, because his clone... er, candidate did indeed lose, 51% to 49%. It would appear Floridians, at least the ones in HD-35, prefer keeping abortion to getting rid of wokeness.
Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which is the state-level version of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, decreed: "This victory in Florida is an earthquake and shows the strength of legislative Democrats as we head into this critical election year." That may be a bit overly broad for a special election since, as readers of this site know, special elections are wonky. That said, we're at least open to the idea that Florida might not be so red as it's seemed recently, and that if the Democrats run a bunch of pro-choice candidates against a bunch of DeSantis clones this year, the blue team could have a better-than-expected year. In particular, there may be merit in spending on the U.S. Senate race, even if Florida is very big and very expensive, since Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) is terribly unpopular. (Z)