Dem
51
GOP
49
Donald Trump hasn't even been nominated yet, let alone elected, but around the world leaders and diplomats are beginning to seriously consider the consequences of another Trump presidency. And they are not so good for America. Many European officials are expecting Trump to greatly disrupt trade if he wins, and also to withdraw to Fortress America. This means that countries that have depended on America in so many ways for decades are now contemplating what they would do in America's absence.
In 2017, then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Europe that it could not count on Trump to aid Europe if it were attacked. Other politicians are echoing that even more strongly now. This view has real world consequences. Europe is starting to build up its arms industries and military preparations. It means that when America has a problem (like catching Osama bin Laden or invading Iraq, or sanctioning some country it doesn't like), other countries may not be in much of a hurry to help out if their own direct interests are not threatened. It means that more world trade will be in euros, not dollars, reducing the power of the U.S., since it can't print unlimited euros as it can dollars. In short, the power of the U.S. in the world will become less and the world will become multipolar, with power centers in the U.S., Europe, Russia, India, and China, not all of which will be inclined to do what is best for the U.S.
Closely related to the concerns about Trump are worries about the actions (or inactions) of the Republicans in the House. Ambassadors are normally very discreet and tend not to have much to say about the internal affairs of other countries, but that is starting to change. One European ambassador told a Politico reporter that the U.S. is a "fat buffalo trying to take a nap as hungry wolves approach. I can hear those Champagne bottle corks popping in Moscow—like it's Christmas every fu**ing day." What the ambassador meant is that the House Republicans are willing to turn Ukraine—and after that, the rest of Eastern Europe—over to Vladimir Putin to score points with their base over the Mexican border. Another ambassador said: "I don't know if in the coming years people will be looking at the United States as a model for democracy."
Trump and the House Republicans have this idea that they can build a big wall around the country and let nothing and no one in and all will be well. They have no idea of how dependent the U.S. is on chips from Taiwan, ingredients for some medicines from China, and certain critical raw materials for electric car batteries and more from Africa and other places. Until those supplies dry up. And a huge amount of manufacturing is done in Asia, either in China or in countries that could easily fall into China's sphere of influence if China wanted to push the matter.
Many ambassadors criticize coupling the aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan to funding border enforcement. In every other country these issues would be considered separately on their individual merits. By coupling them, the relatively popular aid for three friendly countries is tied to the toxic issue of border enforcement. As a result, (potential) wars in three regions might end up with the U.S. ally losing due to partisan politics not related to any of the three countries.
Many European diplomats have the sense that moral or national security issues about a big country simply invading a smaller and weaker neighbor that did nothing to provoke the invasion carry no weight with the American far-right. Thus any claim America might have to moral leadership in the world is vanishing down the drain. Why should anybody listen to what America wants when it is just another big country that likes to throw its weight around when it can? How does that make it any different from Russia or China?
Another diplomat noted: "It is right that countries debate their foreign policy stances, but if all foreign policy issues become domestic political theater, it becomes increasingly challenging for America to effectively play its global role on issues that need long-term commitment and U.S. political capital—such as climate change, Chinese authoritarianism, peace in the Middle East and containing Russian gangsterism." In short, a Trump presidency with a Republican Congress would not only test the rule of law within America, but also deal a huge blow to America's authority and power on the world stage. (V)