Dem
51
GOP
49
In the past three competitive Republican primaries (2016, 2012, and 2008), Iowa picked the wrong horse and New Hampshire got it right. Will this year add to the streak or break it? Donald Trump had it easy in Iowa. The state is jam-packed with conservative evangelicals. New Hampshire is a horse of a different color. A big win there could seal the deal for him, but a landslide win like in Iowa is going to be much harder to pull off.
To start with, there are far fewer evangelicals in New Hampshire than in Iowa. Second, Iowa is a very rural state. Part of southern New Hampshire is in the outer Boston suburbs. Manchester, NH, is only 52 miles from downtown Boston; Nashua, NH, is only 35 miles from Boston. People in Southern New Hampshire get Boston TV stations. Third, Nikki Haley has been carpet bombing Boston TV and New Hampshire TV with ads claiming that both Biden and Trump are too old. Fourth, independents in New Hampshire can vote in the Republican primary and there are more independents in the state than Republicans. Fifth, New Hampshire voters tend to be moderates and Trump did not do well with moderates in Iowa. Sixth, the mechanics of a caucus enabled 1,700 Trump-trained precinct leaders to make a last-minute pitch for the candidate at 7 p.m. when the caucuses started. Primaries are all-day affairs with no electioneering.
The FiveThirtyEight website has Trump at 43%, Haley at 30%, and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) at 6%. It is expected to be a lot closer than Iowa, but surprises can always happen.
However, DeSantis threw a wrench in the works yesterday by pulling his staff (at least, the ones he didn't fire) out of New Hampshire and Nevada and sending them to South Carolina. This way he has an "excuse" for being totally crushed in New Hampshire, which his pullout now guarantees. But with no one else but Trump and Haley operating in New Hampshire, Haley has the one-on-one race she wants. If she can make a good showing in New Hampshire, she can move on to Nevada and again face Trump head-to-head. If she does well again, DeSantis is deluding himself that he can make a last stand in Haley's own state. If Haley doesn't do well in New Hampshire and Nevada, then the race is over. (V)