Jan.17

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

New Mexico Republicans Get Their Woman

It would seem that the New Mexico GOP has been taking a careful look at the playbook of the California GOP: If you're looking at a near-hopeless Senate race, find a candidate with some "star" power. In the Golden State, it's former baseball player Steve Garvey. And in New Mexico, as of yesterday, it's Nella Domenici, the daughter of legendary U.S. Senator Pete Domenici.

With six full terms under his belt (1973-2009), Pete was the longest-serving senator in New Mexico history. He was known for his advocacy for mental health and nuclear power (not at the same time), and for his skill in bringing home the pork. Nella's qualifications for the job are... she's Pete's daughter. She has zero experience in political office, and has spent her career in finance.

Domenici is a pretty good get for the New Mexico GOP, since her last name is undoubtedly worth at least one or two percent of the vote. That said, she faces a very uphill battle, for these reasons:

• Part of the reason Pete Domenici retired is that New Mexico had become pretty blue by 2009. It's currently D+3, which means that a Republican still could win, but it's not too likely. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM), who is running for reelection, is pretty bland and inoffensive, which means that he doesn't excite too many Democrats, but he also doesn't offend too many of them, either. He won his first Senate election by 6 points, and then, once he was incumbent, he won reelection by 24 points.
  
  
• On that same theme, the last time New Mexico sent a Republican to the Senate was in 2002, in the person of... Pete Domenici. And, of course, he was riding the benefits of incumbency. The last time New Mexico sent a freshman Republican to the Senate was in... 1976.
  
  
• Nella will benefit from her father's last name, but he won't be campaigning for her, because he died in 2017.
  
  
• In general, "prominent U.S. Senator's kid" sounds good on paper, but doesn't work out too well in practice. To take one example, Michelle Nunn, daughter of Sam, lost by 8 points when she ran for Georgia's U.S. Senate seat in 2014. To take another example, Adam Laxalt, son of... Pete Domenici, lost by 1 point when he ran for Nevada's U.S. Senate seat in 2022. And in both of those cases, circumstances were more favorable for the senatorial offspring than they will be for Nella Domenici in 2024.
  
  
• The Republican primary is not uncontested. Former Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales, who is also a former Democrat, is inas well. New Mexico is 50.1% Latino, and while identity politics isn't everything, it isn't nothing, either.

In short, things in New Mexico just got a little more interesting. But not interesting enough that we foresee writing very many more items about this particular race. (Z)