Jan.15

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Eleven States Will Elect a Governor This Year

With all the attention focused on the presidential race, the Senate contests, and control of the House, the 11 gubernatorial elections aren't getting much love. In a way, they deserve to, even though only two are really competitive. With the federal government perpetually paralyzed and unable to govern, more and more responsibility is devolving to the states, so governors are actually important figures, more so than most senators. They actually have to run a state and get results, not just yell slogans and hide under their desks from time to time.

Eleven states will hold gubernatorial elections this year. That's not as many as the 36 that do it in midterm years, but still enough that it is worth paying some attention to them. Charlie Cook took a look recently, and this is a summary of what he had to say. Here is the map showing the 11 states where, along with Puerto Rico, and American Samoa, gubernatorial elections will be held in 2024.

• Delaware: Gov. John Carney (D-DE) is term-limited, so his sidekick, Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long (D-DE) is running for a promotion. However, New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer (D) is also running for the Democratic nomination. Carney has, not surprisingly, endorsed his #2, so she is the favorite to become the second female chief executive in the state. The first was Ruth Minner, who was elected in 2000 and again in 2004. The Republicans will probably find some sacrificial lamb to run, but in very blue Delaware, it won't matter who it is.
  
  
• Indiana: Gov. Eric Holcomb is term-limited so he is not running for reelection. Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) decided he wants a job where he can actually do something, so he is running for governor instead of for reelection to the Senate. Although Braun has won a statewide election (in 2018 for the Senate), he is no shoo-in since the sitting lieutenant governor, Suzanne Crouch (R-IN), is also running. Braun is probably better known than Crouch and is wealthy enough to self-fund his campaign. He is probably the favorite. The only Democrat to file so far is actually a Republican, Jennifer McCormick, the former superintendent of public instruction. She has no chance in deep red Indiana.
  
  
• Missouri: Also here, the governor, Mike Parson, is term-limited. Again, not surprisingly the lieutenant governor—in this case, Mike Kehoe (R-MO)—wants the top job. However, he will first have to beat Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft (R), son of former governor John Ashcroft, in the Republican primary. The Ashcroft name is well known in Missouri, so Jay is probably the favorite to follow Dad to the governor's mansion. The minority leader of the state House, Crystal Quade (D), is the Democratic nominee. She is only 38 and the first person in her immediate family to graduate from high school. She later graduated from college, worked for then-senator Claire McCaskill, and got elected to the Missouri House in 2016. She has been reelected ever since, most recently in 2022 with 3,968 votes (that's total votes, not her margin). In other words, Missouri House races don't get a lot of votes. Her opponent got only 3,075 votes. She should have stayed in the state House as she has basically no chance of moving up to the governor's mansion.
  
  
• Montana: Gov. Greg Gianforte (R-MT) is not term-limited and is running for reelection. His approval rating is 49%, with 22% disapproving. No major Democrat has even filed yet, although there is still time. We assume Gianforte will be reelected easily. A big question, however, is whether his presence on the ballot will hurt Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), whose seat the Democrats desperately need to hold.
  
  
• New Hampshire: Finally, we come to a real horse race. Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) simply decided it's time to do something else and is not running for another 2-year term, despite the near certainty that he would win. Two big-name Republicans want to succeed him, former state AG and U.S. senator Kelly Ayotte and former state Senate President Chuck Morse. On the Democratic side, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig is facing Cinde Warmington, one of the five members of the New Hampshire Executive Council, a New Hampshire institution. Since three of the major candidates are women, there is a roughly 75% chance the next governor will be a woman. But in New Hampshire, that is not a big deal, as Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Maggie Hassan (D-NH) were formerly governors as well. We also assume that whoever wins the governor's mansion will run for the Senate when Shaheen (76) retires. It's a local tradition.
  
  
• North Carolina: This one is not only competitive, but also messy. Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) is term-limited and his #2, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC), a Black fire-breathing Trumpist, wants a promotion. However, Robinson will first have to beat wealthy trial lawyer Bill Graham (R) in the primary. The Democratic nominee will be AG Josh Stein. If Robinson wins the primary, it will be one helluva race, with a Black Trumpist running against a mild-mannered Democrat. It might just be enough to get Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to start muttering "candidate quality, candidate quality" under his breath again, even though this is not a Senate race. If Stein wins, it wouldn't be the first time a mildly liberal Jewish AG named Josh S. beat a crazy Trumpist for governor in that general neck of the woods (Josh Shapiro did it in Pennsylvania in 2022 against Doug Mastriano).
  
  
• North Dakota: Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) is so disappointed that nobody except Mrs. Burgum wants him to be president that he is taking his marbles and going home. He could have run for reelection and bought the office again, but who really wants to be governor of North Dakota, anyhow? There is still time for Burgum to change his mind though. Yesterday Burgum endorsed Trump, so maybe he is angling for a cabinet post in a Trump administration. So far, pretty much nobody in either party has filed to run for governor.
  
  
• Utah: Gov. Spencer Cox (R-UT) is running for reelection. Brian King, the former minority leader of the state House, is a lock for the Democratic nomination. It won't matter though. Cox will be reelected easily.
  
  
• Vermont: Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) is the most popular governor in the country, with an 84% approval rating. Vermont doesn't have term limits, so he can continue being governor until the cows come home, after delivering all their milk to Ben & Jerry's ice cream plant in Waterbury, VT. Scott hasn't made a decision on running, though. He is a former stock car racer and if he decides he prefers racing to running, Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman (D-VT) is a shoo-in to replace him.
  
  
• Washington: Gov. Jay Inslee (D-WA) is the longest-serving governor in the country, having held the job since Jan. 2013. He ran for president in 2020 and got nowhere. He is 72 and neither of the state's U.S. Senate seats is open, so he decided enough is enough and is retiring from politics. No Republican has been elected governor of Washington since 1985, the third-longest gubernatorial streak in the country after South Dakota and Utah, which have had Republican governors since forever. Washington AG Bob Ferguson (D) is not the only Democrat running, but certainly the best known. The Republicans found a serious candidate in former U.S. representative Dave Reichert. Still, the state is very blue and Ferguson is the favorite.
  
  
• West Virginia: Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) is about to become Sen. Jim Justice (R-WV), so West Virginia needs a new governor. The state is so red that whoever wins the Republican primary can go on vacation until the inauguration and not lose a vote. Not surprisingly, a number of ambitious Republicans have signed up, including AG Patrick Morrisey, WV Secretary of State Mac Warner, and Moore Capito, son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) and grandson of former governor and felon Arch Moore. Polling puts Morrisey way ahead, but many voters are undecided.
  

In short, New Hampshire and North Carolina are competitive and the others may change governor but not party (unless Phil Scott decides to retire). (V)