Jan.15

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

   

GOP 49

Did Trump Dodge All the Bullets?

From the above item, you can see that Donald Trump uses the courts as a key business tool. Court cases are not something to be avoided. They are an important part of how he does business. His strategy is not to use the facts and not to use the law but to manipulate the system. The key to his success is simply delaying all cases indefinitely hoping to either wear down his opponents until they give up or in some cases drag things out so long that maybe he gets lucky and then grabs the luck and runs with it.

With this in mind, let's look at the four criminal cases where he has been indicted. How's that working out? Please keep in mind, Trump is not trying to win these cases in the conventional sense. He is trying to delay the trials until after the election, pardon himself in the federal cases and intimidate the prosecutors into backing down in the state cases. From most serious to least serious, here we go.

• Jan. 6 Insurrection Case in D.C.: Special Prosecutor Jack Smith is brilliant at what he does and has the facts, the evidence, and the law on his side. So is Trump in trouble here? Maybe. Trump has gone full Nixon and said: "When the president does it, it is not illegal." At the appeals court oral arguments last week, when his lawyer was asked: "If the president orders a political opponent assassinated and then resigns before the House can impeach him, does he get off scot free?" The lawyer said: "Yes." The three judges did not seem impressed and we wouldn't be surprised if they rendered a verdict as early as this week stating that ex-presidents are not "immune" to prosecution. Trump will likely respond to that by either asking for an en banc hearing at the appeals court or appealing to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court could delay the oral hearings for months due to its busy schedule and by the time it upheld the appeals court, it could be the fall and then a trial of the Republican presidential candidate in the heart of election season would be unseemly, so it would probably get delayed until December. If Trump were to win the election, he would pardon himself and escape punishment. Of course, it is also possible that John Roberts has finally had enough of Trump, schedules the case quickly, and rules "No, ex-presidents are not immune from prosecution."
  
  
• Documents Case at Mar-a-Lago: Trump lucked out here and got a judge, Aileen Cannon, who is in the tank for him. It has probably occurred to Cannon that if she delays the case until after the election, Trump will probably actually be grateful. He's not grateful much, but this is a real biggie. She might well be dreaming of an appointment to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit if a vacancy comes up during a Trump administration. In fact, we wouldn't even be surprised if some intermediary whom Trump knows well and trusts whispered that in her ear.
  
  
• RICO Case in Georgia: Fulton County D.A. Fani Willis is very smart and possibly simultaneously stupid beyond all belief. She has a really strong case against Trump, Rudy Giuliani, and some lesser lights. She has the facts and evidence and the law on her side. She was assigned a judge who appears to be honest and serious. Oh, and in Georgia state courts, cases can be televised if the judge approves and Judge Scott McAfee frequently allows his cases to be televised. So Trump is toast, right?
  
  Maybe not. Fulton County has the largest staff of any judicial circuit in Georgia, stocked with experienced prosecutors on the payroll. The RICO case Willis has brought is complicated, but she and her staff have handled big RICO cases before. Now one of Trump's co-defendants in the case, Michael Roman, has filed a request to have Willis taken off the case because he claims she hired her boyfriend, Nathan Wade, as lead prosecutor and paid him nearly $700,000 in billable hours for his work on the case. The day after Willis hired Wade, he filed for divorce from his wife of 24 years. The divorce case has been exceedingly acrimonious and Wade may have violated a court order in the divorce case.
  
  Wade is a member of the Georgia bar but he is not a prosecutor and Willis' office has plenty of experienced prosecutors. Hiring an outside prosecutor is not unheard of, but hiring an inexperienced one when the office has plenty of experienced ones on staff is unusual. If Willis is indeed having an affair with Wade, it will be tough for her to continue as prosecutor. Then either another prosecutor from her office would take over, or Georgia AG Christopher Carr (R) could take over himself. In any event, Willis' replacement would certainly delay the trial from August to after the election. What is worrying here is that Willis did not instantly denounce the allegation by saying that she does not and has never had a romantic relationship with Wade. She said she will reply to the allegations in court filings. Maybe this is just smoke and there is no fire, but we would have been happier if she had publicly refuted the allegations immediately, or better yet, sued Roman for defamation. If it is not already part of the standard law school curriculum, this might be a good time to add a bit about prosecutors not hiring their boyfriend/girlfriend to work for them on major cases, even if they are really, really, really good (which Wade is not). If the allegations are true and Willis is removed, Trump might even do the unthinkable and go to church to thank Jesus for getting him out of a real jam here.
  
  
• Hush Money Case in New York: This is the case about Trump paying Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal money to keep quiet about their 1-night and 9-month affairs, respectively. There is nothing illegal about buying the exclusive rights to someone's story. The problem is that Trump reported it falsely, violating New York State law about business records. If Trump's campaign had simply "hired" them as "consultants" and paid them as such from campaign funds, it would have been perfectly legal. Trump's lawyers are going to emphasize that buying their silence was perfectly legal and paying them from the wrong pot of money was a simple bookkeeping mistake. There is a good chance that at least one juror is not going to think that making an otherwise legal payment from the wrong bank account is such a big deal, state law or no state law. This is by far the weakest of the cases against Trump. Also, two of the lawyers for Trump on the case, Todd Blanche and Susan Necheles, are smart enough to know how to appeal to the jury, law or no law. The third one, Joe Tacopina, is there to bluster about the case on TV, not in the courtroom. Even if Trump is convicted in this case before the election, we suspect that everyone will just write it off as a minor bookkeeping mistake.

If all the stars align right, Trump might well get away with it on all four criminal cases. It's not a given, but it could happen, especially if the Supreme Court takes its time to decide if Trump has more immunity than someone who has had six COVID shots.

The one case where Trump is in deep doodoo is the civil case filed by NY AG Letitia James. Judge Arthur Engoron has already decided that he is liable for defrauding banks and insurance companies. All that is left is for him to decide on how many additional counts he's guilty and then the fine. James is asking for $370 million. Engoron could go with that or throw in another $130 million for punitive damages, rounding it off to half a billion. Or whatever else he wants. Trump will appeal, but this is clearly a state case and there is a good chance that the U.S. Supreme Court will say: "This case is about New York State commercial law and we'll leave that to the New York Court of Appeals to handle." While Engoron can't send Trump to prison, he could whack him with a fine that will really hurt. And unlike the two Georgia poll workers who are never going to get the $148 million Rudy Giuliani now owes them, New York State has the power to seize one or more of Trump's buildings and auction them off. Just imagine how Trump would foam at the mouth at a potential video showing workmen removing the "Trump Tower" sign and replacing it with a "New York State Tower" sign after Engoron seizes it for auction or sale. (V)