Dem
51
GOP
49
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) may soon wonder why he took his thankless job. Democrats hate him but so do many of his fellow Republicans. What's a guy to do? First, he just reiterated that he plans to stick to the funding agreement he recently made with the Democrats, which was only marginally different from the one former speaker Kevin McCarthy made with Joe Biden last year. If it passes, the government won't shut down. The Freedom Caucus members have gone bananas over this agreement because it includes almost none of their priorities. Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) said: "We would like to see much lower numbers—obviously, we're bankrupting the country. And we would like to see the border made an issue in this. Actual border security, not just laws that are going to be ignored." Perry and others have urged Johnson to rip up the agreement and start all over. The Speaker has refused to do that, in large part because there is no time left. Funding for part of the government runs out on Friday. Also, many other House Republicans, especially those in swing districts, do not want a shutdown because they know they will get blamed for it.
Time to kick the can down the road again, as usual? Johnson is starting to talk about it. Maybe he thinks all the problems will vanish when the snow melts. We're not convinced delay is going to solve them. It is possible that he can pull off another delay—although the Freedom Caucus members are very strongly opposed to that. But when that delay has run out, then what? Delaying doesn't change any of the underlying dynamics.
In order to get the funding bill passed, Johnson needs to get a lot of Democratic votes. This is where the second front comes in. He can't be sure of those votes because he is fighting with the Democrats on aid to Ukraine. Johnson wants to keep aid to Ukraine as a hostage unless the Democrats agree to tough measures on the Mexican border. These include building a 900-mile wall on the border and a reimplementation of Donald Trump's policy of making would-be immigrants remain in Mexico while their cases are being heard (which can take years). Democrats are strongly opposed to wasting billions of dollars on a wall that is good for photo-ops but little else because they have been tipped off about Mexico's new technology for dealing with annoying walls. The Mexicans are calling it "ladders." When asked about the Republicans' plans for the border, Rep. Juan Vargas (D-CA) said: "That's a non-starter for me, and I think for most of us." Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ), the ranking Democrat on the Homeland Security Committee, said: "I don't think it is realistic."
Johnson is in a bind. If he insists on the border measures, the Democrats won't vote for his budget deal and he doesn't have enough Republican votes to pass it without them. Then the government will shut down and the Democrats will yell: "You have the majority. It is your responsibility to get keep the government functioning." If he gives in to the Democrats and brings the Ukraine funding bill to a vote, it will pass with mostly Democratic votes and a handful of Republican votes, in which case he might face a motion to vacate the chair. This is the situation McCarthy found himself in before he was fired. In the next week, we are (probably) going to find out what kind of stuff Johnson is made of. Unless he punts and we don't find out for another month or two. At some point he has to make a decision. This can't go on forever.
However, Democrats are also looking at another option. Joe Biden is examining the possibility of having $300 billion in Russian assets in the G7 and E.U. countries seized and diverting them to help Ukraine. Other countries would have to agree and Congress would have to pass a law allowing this for Russian assets in the U.S., but it wouldn't be spending U.S. taxpayers' money, so it might have a greater chance of getting the three Republican votes needed if the bill came up for a vote. (V)