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Former Maryland governor Larry Hogan has endorsed Nikki Haley on the eve of the Iowa caucuses. He said she would be the strongest Republican candidate in the general election.
Endorsements rarely matter much. It is unlikely that a single Iowa voter who was planning to vote for Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis tonight will now switch to Haley on account of Hogan's endorsement. Most of them probably won't even know he endorsed Haley. Nevertheless, we think this could be important news. Hogan was recently associated with the No Labels group but left last week. Some people have been interpreting his departure from an administrative position there as a sign that he might be their candidate. Endorsing Haley could be a sign that he is not going to be their candidate, since he is supporting someone else.
But maybe if Trump is later the nominee, Hogan could say: "I supported Haley but she didn't make it. I don't want Trump to be president, so I guess I have to run myself to stop him." On the other hand, he is probably aware that the kind of voter who might be attracted to No Labels is a traditional Republican who hates Trump and absent an alternative would grudgingly vote for Joe Biden. Thus by running, he would actually help Trump. Could someone who hates Trump and is actively supporting a different Republican for the GOP nomination turn around and then do something to help elect Trump? It seems unlikely to us, but who knows. Draw your own conclusions from this endorsement. We can't make a lot of sense out of it other than he really wants Haley to be the Republican nominee and will not do anything that later de facto helps Trump. But we aren't even sure if we believe this. If Hogan really wants to help Haley, he should have endorsed her months ago. It's all very strange.
Also on the Haley front, the candidate said yesterday that she is not interested in being anyone's running mate. Just before the voting starts, that is a good thing to say. But sometimes things change later on and folks who say that sometimes reconsider. (V)