Dem
51
GOP
49
Primary season is almost upon us and the maps aren't settled yet in multiple states. And even where they are settled, in some cases they are different from the ones used in 2022. The idea that just after the census, new maps are drawn and stay that way for 10 years is ancient history.
Since Republicans have just a three-seat majority in the House, every change in a map is really important. So far, post-2022 redistricting has netted the Republicans about 2-3 seats, but the show isn't over yet.
North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama have already drawn new maps and gotten the courts to approve. The Republican-controlled state legislature in North Carolina redrew its map after the majority on the state Supreme Court changed from Democratic to Republican. A 7R, 7D map is likely to now become a 10R, 4D map in a state that is extremely evenly balanced. This is a three-seat pickup for the Republicans. The new map is so bad that three incumbent Democrats—Reps. Jeff Jackson, Kathy Manning, and Wiley Nickel—aren't even going to bother to run because they have no chance. The seat of Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) has become redder, but not hopeless. Gerrymandering at its finest.
Democrats will probably pick up a seat in Alabama due to a Supreme Court ruling that the old map violated the Voting Rights Act. The map will probably go from 6R, 1D to 5R, 2D, with the new Democrat coming from a new majority-Black district. The map in Louisiana is still in flux, but it has the same problem as the Alabama map. A new possibly court-imposed map will probably add one Democratic seat.
The real biggie left is New York. Before 2022, the Democrats drew a hyper-gerrymandered map so bad that the courts threw it out. Now the state's highest court, the Court of Appeals, has a Democratic majority, and the Democratic-controlled legislature has to decide how aggressive a map it wants. An independent commission gets to try first, but in the end, the legislature gets the final call. If the legislature gets really aggressive, it could try to flip as many as six Republican seats. That would be huge, but that would work only in a substantial Democratic wave in the state. That said, with Donald Trump on the ballot, that wave might well materialize.
There are a couple of court cases still in progress. Democrats claim that SC-01, currently occupied by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC), is an illegal racial gerrymander. In Utah, Republicans carved up the traditionally Democratic district around Salt Lake City, creating four safe red districts. The courts could reverse that. In Florida, Ron DeSantis pushed through an extremely partisan map, even more partisan than the legislature wanted. That is being challenged, but the odds of getting it changed are low. Still, with such a small margin in the House, every district counts. (V)