Dem
51
GOP
49
It is well known that bad weather can affect turnout for any election. In that case, the Iowa caucuses could be a real humdinger. The weather forecast for Iowa up until next Monday's caucuses is basically a blizzard with 6-12 inches of snow throughout much of the state. Winter storm warnings are up in 92 of Iowa's 99 counties. After the snow, a polar vortex is expected, with daytime temperatures in the single digits Fahrenheit and below-zero temperatures at night. Heavy winds are also expected. How many people are going to drive through half a foot or more snow in zero-degree weather with high winds to hang out for 3 hours to talk politics? The official forecast is that the snow will start Monday afternoon with heavy snow all evening and into Tuesday.
Many politicians are pooh-poohing the weather, saying that Iowans are used to it. Yeah, but you don't have much choice about going to work in freezing weather or a snowstorm, whereas you can skip the caucus. What is very important is the differential effect. It is commonly believed that older voters, who may not like driving in a raging blizzard, might decide that on grounds of personal safety they should skip this one. On the other hand, 20-somethings, all of whom think they are great drivers and immortal, might see this as merely a minor challenge to be overcome.
If the age distribution is skewed on account of the weather, that could affect the results. Polling shows that Donald Trump does especially well among senior citizens. If large numbers of them decide to stay home, that could reduce his totals more than it reduces totals for the other candidates. Consequently, extremely heavy snow might not hand Nikki Haley or Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) a victory, but it could cut into Trump's margin. If Trump wins by 30% when everyone was expecting him to win by 50%, the news the next day will be "Trump wins Iowa but by less than expected." That's never a good story for a candidate.
The Chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, Jeff Kaufmann, has already said that the caucuses will start Monday at 7 p.m. no matter what the weather is doing. There are 1,600 caucus sites throughout the state. It would take hundreds of hours to find new ones. At this late date, that is not going to happen. He said that the subzero weather will be good for national reporters from Florida, because it will build character. In 2016, 186,000 Iowans turned out. That is the benchmark for this year's turnout. On the other hand, this 0.1% of the people who voted in 2020 will have a massive effect on the national election, possibly causing some candidates to drop out. One could ask if this is the best way to choose a president.
The weather is already having an effect, as it is forcing candidates to change their schedules. For example, a snowstorm this week caused Haley to miss a planned event in Sioux City because she couldn't get there. Trump had to cancel an event in Ottumwa; undoubtedly the grandchildren of Radar O'Reilly were devastated. Roseanne Barr couldn't get to a Trump event in Boone. Vivek Ramaswamy skipped an event in Indianola because he couldn't make it. If extreme weather is enough to shut Ramaswamy up, maybe climate change isn't such a bad thing, after all. In any event, the bad weather is expected to continue to Caucus Day. (V)